January 10, 2020
Summary: Most of the fog and low clouds that blanketed much of the valley this morning have burned off. Temperatures as of 1:00pm had risen into the lower 50s at most locations. However, Visalia and Lemoore were still reporting a low overcast with readings only in the mid 40s.
The next weather system will have almost no impact on the San Joaquin Valley as it races through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Saturday. showers may spread over roughly the northern 1/3 of California, but no precipitation for central California is expected.
Fog and/or low clouds during the night and morning hours will be the main challenges through Monday morning along with how much clearing ultimately occurs. Dew points are generally in the low to mid 40s so radiational cooling with quickly allow the temperature to fall to the dew point, allowing for areas of widespread ground fog but with clearing in most areas in the afternoons.
A fast moving low will drop from a position west of the British Columbia coast then will race south/southeast through northern and central California Tuesday. Models still show enough dynamics with this system for light showers to spread down the valley. The fast pace of this storm will not allow substantial amounts of rain to accumulate.
Hopefully that will change next Thursday and Friday as models have been reasonably consistent in depicting a strong low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska to a position off the Washington and Oregon coast by next Thursday evening. The counterclockwise circulation around this winter storm will have the potential to drive a considerable amount of moisture into northern and central California, especially along the Sierra Nevada where lift comes into play.
On the flip side, however, once this storm moves inland, a dry pattern shows up for next weekend, lasting well into the following week. Even the new two week model for the 18th through the 24th is showing for the first time in quite a while above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies before midnight. Widespread fog and low clouds will develop during the early morning hours. Expect widespread fog Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings then mostly clear to partly cloudy in the afternoons. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of light showers Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with an increasing chance of rain Thursday, rain becoming likely Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/54/33/52 | Reedley 33/55/33/54 | Dinuba 31/53/32/52 | |
| Porterville 33/53/34/52 | Lindsay 32/53/33/52 | Delano 34/53/34/53 | |
| Bakersfield 38/56/39/53 | Taft 39/55/39/54 | Arvin 35/55/35/54 | |
| Lamont 35/56/35/55 | Pixley 32/54/33/53 | Tulare 31/52/32/54 | |
| Woodlake 32/54/33/54 | Hanford 34/53/34/52 | Orosi 32/53/32/52 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: The next chance of rain will not arrive until Tuesday when a compact, fast moving low pressure system zips through. The fast pace of this storm, combined with weak dynamics, leads me to believe this will be a light precipitation event. Dry weather will quickly return Tuesday night through Wednesday night. models continue to direct us towards the possibility of a major winter storm event later Wednesday through next Thursday night. models still suggest a large low will develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a strong feed of energy moving off the Pacific Ocean and into northern and central California. In theory, this would produce heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada and possibly significant amounts on the valley floor, depending on rain shadow activity. Models are also showing that for next weekend and beyond, there will be a return to a dry weather pattern.
Frost Discussion: The bulk of the low clouds and fog of this morning have burned off. This will lead to mostly clear skies tonight, at least until the early morning hours. Decent radiational cooling will occur. Still, with dew points in the low to mid 40s, critically cold temperatures simply will not occur. But the possibility of coldest locations dropping into the lower 30s is plausible.
Models also indicate some increase in higher clouds will show up during the predawn hours, allowing temperatures to actually rise before sunrise. Low 30s will be possible on any given night through Monday with most locations between 33 to 37 or so. Above freezing temperatures can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday due to cloud cover. Conditions for late next week also appear to be above freezing. Even though the two week model has finally switched to a dry forecast, the flow aloft will likely be out of the west, meaning no critically cold weather is on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
33 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 11/morning