trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3643
January 10, 2020
Summary: The weather system that brought showers to the valley yesterday has sped to the east and is already over the Four Corners region. As it dumps into the Midwest later today and tonight, widespread severe weather is expected over areas of the south and Midwest. In the meantime, here at home there is plenty of upslope clouds banking up against the Sierra and the Kern County mountains. Where cloud cover is not prevalent, ground fog has formed. With dew points generally ranging in the low to mid 40s and additional moisture on the valley floor, widespread fog and low clouds can be expected through Monday with some clearing each afternoon.
The next system will speed through the Pacific Northwest then will dive into the eastern Great Basin, leaving central California unscathed. Yet another low will dive southward right along the Canadian coast but then southeastward through the northern Rockies. The eastern Pacific high will remain off shore with California between the storm track over the interior west and the off shore high, meaning temperatures will be cool. Incidentally, this is the first day this season where the average high has risen from its lowest point. It now stands at 54 degrees.
On Monday night and Tuesday, yet another elongated system will slide down the Canadian coast, but this time it will take a path through California, so it’s time to reintroduce a chance of showers for late Monday night and Tuesday. For now, it appears amounts will be light as these systems are moving very quickly.
It will be next Thursday and Friday when the pattern becomes quite interesting. Most models are showing a strong low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a moist westerly flow sweeping into northern and central California underneath the low. With some luck, heavy precipitation should occur along the Sierra Nevada and possibly significant amounts of rain on the valley floor.
We’re still monitoring that bitterly cold air covering most of Canada and Alaska where a few locations are down to 40 and 50 below. The GFS model indicates some of this air will slide from the Northwest Territories of Canada into the central U.S. beginning the 21. Fortunately, it’s currently predicted to leave the western U.S. under a mild westerly flow.
Forecast: Fog and low overcast this morning with some clearing this afternoon. Widespread fog and low overcast during the night and morning hours Saturday through Monday with partial afternoon clearing. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers later Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night. areas of fog and low clouds Wednesday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness later Wednesday night with a chance of rain Thursday, rain becoming likely Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/32/53/33/52 | Reedley 50/34/54/34/52 | Dinuba 49/32/52/33/52 | |
| Porterville 50/33/54/34/53 | Lindsay 51/32/53/33/52 | Delano 51/35/54/35/52 | |
| Bakersfield 52/40/55/40/53 | Taft 55/40/55/40/54 | Arvin 50/40/55/40/53 | |
| Lamont 52/39/55/40/53 | Pixley 52/33/54/34/53 | Tulare 51/32/53/33/53 | |
| Woodlake 52/32/53/32/52 | Hanford 51/34/53/34/52 | Orosi 51/31/54/32/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/52 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 40/54 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 38/52 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 42/57 |
Friday
Rain likely 44/53 |
Two Week Outlook: January 17 through January 23: This model indicates above average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California with the southern half of the state experiencing near average rainfall. Temperatures under this pattern should be close to seasonal norms.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Monday. It now appears the chance of showers will increase again later Monday night but more likely Tuesday if models have the timing correct. This will be a cold, fast moving system so rainfall amounts are expected to be generally light. For now, anyway, Wednesday looks to be dry but on Wednesday, a low will be developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which, on paper, anyway, will develop a rich feed of moisture underneath and into northern and central California, possibly producing heavy rain and snow in the Sierra and possibly significant rain on the valley floor, depending on how our wintertime rain shadows play out.
Frost Discussion: There are plenty of low clouds throughout the valley this morning, based at anywhere from 200 feet to as high as 3,000 feet. Where cloud cover is sparse, widespread ground fog has developed. With anticipated dew points in the low to mid 40s this afternoon, widespread fog and/or low clouds are expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings with some afternoon clearing. For tonight’s forecast, I’ll go ahead and put low 30s in some of the colder locations, but also mention it’s entirely possible most, if not all, locations could remain above freezing. This is also a good synopsis for Sunday and Monday mornings as ground fog and low clouds take over nights and early mornings.
For now, it appears Tuesday and Wednesday will be above freezing due to a cold but fast moving system out of the Gulf of Alaska. Well above freezing conditions are expected next Thursday and Friday as a moist westerly flow flanks underneath a system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. With each set of medium range models that comes out, it now appears all that bitterly cold arctic air that’s been bottled up into Canada and Alaska for weeks and weeks will make a move down into the central and eventually the eastern part of the country about the 21st. Thankfully, it doesn’t appear this air mass will have any impact on California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
33 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 75%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 9, 2020: Delano, 100%/77% Porterville, 97%/72%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .NA, Parlier .25, Blackwell Corner .29, Arvin .27, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .19, Delano .21. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 68/18. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1004 -317
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.4 +3.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.01. Month to Date: .22 -.42
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.35. Month to Date: .05 -.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 500, Parlier 562, Arvin 421, Shafter 471, Stratford 466, Delano 544, Lindcove 632, Porterville 862
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 Sunset: 5:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 41 / 0.31 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.20 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 42 / 0.30 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 41 / 0.14 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 51 / 48 / 0.06 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 41 / 0.05 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / 0.06 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 51 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 50 / 40 / 0.13 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.33 4.66 85 7.01 128 5.48 14.06
MODESTO 0.25 3.48 73 4.97 104 4.79 13.11
MERCED 0.21 5.17 116 4.83 108 4.46 12.50
MADERA 0.31 2.57 55 3.74 80 4.68 12.02
FRESNO 0.20 3.10 75 3.34 81 4.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.30 2.61 66 2.60 65 3.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 2.64 115 1.57 69 2.29 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 55 1.58 79 1.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.08 5.14 111 5.08 110 4.62 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.03 6.04 136 4.79 108 4.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.09 4.25 89 3.98 83 4.80 13.95
Next report: January 10/PM