trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 11, 2020
Summary: Another fast moving trough of low pressure is currently moving through the Pacific Northwest, just clipping northern California with some light showers. Enough motion exists in the lower level of the atmosphere over the valley floor to prevent fog from forming on a widespread basis. Through Monday, the eastern Pacific high will remain far enough off shore to allow the storm track to continue out of the Gulf of Alaska, through the Pacific Northwest, then into the interior western U.S. The next system will race through to our north Sunday and Sunday night with yet another on Monday.
Models the past few days have been indicating a fast moving weather system would take more of a westerly trajectory on Tuesday for a chance of showers. Some models this morning, however, show it tracking southeastward a little further to the east. This would minimize the chance of showers for Tuesday. Even so, a chance of light showers still appears possible, mainly from Fresno County north.
It looks like Wednesday will be dry as a ridge of high pressure upwells ahead of an intensifying low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This low will eventually dig a trough southward into California Thursday into Friday with a moist westerly flow across the Pacific Ocean and into northern and central California. This could be our best shot at significant precipitation for a while as models seem to be trending towards high pressure over the western states next weekend and possibly well into the following week.
Forecast:Patchy fog this morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Mostly clear but possibly mostly cloudy in portions of Kern and Tulare Counties through Sunday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday night. mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers Tuesday, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday with patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. rain likely at times Thursday and Thursday night. showers likely Friday, mainly during the morning. mostly to partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/31/53/32/53 | Reedley 54/32/53/32/53 | Dinuba 53/31/52/31/52 | |
| Porterville 54/31/52/31/53 | Lindsay 54/31/52/31/53 | Delano 54/33/52/34/53 | |
| Bakersfield 53/37/53/38/53 | Taft 54/41/53/40/53 | Arvin 54/33/53/34/52 | |
| Lamont 54/34/53/34/54 | Pixley 54/32/53/31/52 | Tulare 53/31/52/31/52 | |
| Woodlake 53/31/53/32/53 | Hanford 54/33/53/34/54 | Orosi 53/30/53/31/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Chance of showers 39/54 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 35/54 |
Thursday
Rain likely 41/56 |
Friday
AM showers 41/54 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 34/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west during this time frame, resulting in generally above average daytime temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: The next chance of rain will not arrive until Tuesday, and even then, models are indicating this will be a minimal event, at best. Some of this morning’s models are indicating the storm will take a more easterly path into the Great Basin, only allowing for a minimal chance of light showers in the valley, and even then, mainly from Fresno County north. For now, Wednesday and Wednesday night look dry. For quite some time now, models have been showing a deep area of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Thursday. Models this morning place the parent low a bit north, off the Washington coast. Even so, it does appear a trough will dig southward into California, generating a nice, wet, moist feed into California for potentially heavy rain and snow in the Sierra Nevada and a decent chance of significant precipitation on the valley floor. If the model timeline is correct, showers will continue well into Friday with a dry pattern beginning next weekend.
Frost Discussion: Low to mid 30s were widespread this morning from Madera County southward through Kern County. The coldest locations as of 6:30 were 30 degrees at both Fowler and Exeter. The potential for similar conditions on Sunday and Monday mornings certainly exists. The wildcard tonight will be a fast moving low pressure system zooming through the Great Basin which, in theory, should cause upslope clouds to form against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi and, to a lesser extent, the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare county. If this cloud cover does indeed form, readings will only drop into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. However, where clear skies are evident, coldest, unprotected, river bottom type environments will dip down to 29 to 30 degrees with most typical flat terrain chilling into the low to mid 30s.
Increased cloud cover Tuesday morning will keep temperatures above freezing. For now, it appears Wednesday through Friday will be above freezing, as well.
A dry weather pattern will set up next weekend, however current information indicates the flow into California will be mild, so, as has been the trend all winter long, any polar air masses will continue to be blocked.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 70%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 10, 2020: Delano, 100%/61% Porterville, 99%/60%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .NA, Parlier .23, Blackwell Corner .29, Arvin .26, Orange Cove .21, Porterville .18, Delano .20. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 74/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1023 -318
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.3 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.09. Month to Date: .22 -.50
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.31. Month to Date: .05 -.32
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 515, Parlier 578, Arvin 428, Shafter 484, Stratford 476, Delano 559, Lindcove 650, Porterville 881
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 5:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1539 / 54 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 54 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.66 84 7.01 126 5.57 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.48 71 4.97 102 4.87 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.17 113 4.83 106 4.57 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.57 54 3.74 78 4.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.10 74 3.34 80 4.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.61 64 2.60 64 4.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 113 1.57 67 2.33 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 54 1.58 78 2.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.14 109 5.08 108 4.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.04 133 4.79 106 4.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.25 87 3.98 81 4.90 13.95
Next report: January 11/PM