trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 18, 2020
Summary: Fog and low clouds are widespread through the San Joaquin Valley this morning. even so, skies remained clear long enough to allow widespread frost with most locations dipping into the lower 30s with a few upper 20s, which is discussed in the frost summary below.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure now extends from the eastern Pacific across California and into the Great Basin. Warmer air is moving in aloft. The freezing level jumped from 4,300 feet at Vandenberg 48 hours ago to 10,400 feet, according to the latest sounding. As evidence of the warm air moving in above the valley floor, Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet is 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago while Blue Canyon at 5,600 feet is 7 warmer.
There is a considerable amount of high clouds overrunning the high which will slow the low clouds and fog from burning off. It’s possible some locations may not see the sun at all this afternoon and each afternoon through Monday. Where the low cloud deck remains in place, highs will only range in the mid to upper 40s. Locations in the sunshine will enjoy low to mid 50s. mid and high level clouds will begin to increase Monday ahead of an approaching Pacific winter storm. The parent low will move into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday with its associated trough and frontal system moving through California. It appears a split may occur as this system approaches the coast. Typically, this robs the frontal system of the dynamics needed for significant precipitation. For now, just a small chance of light showers is possible for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Wednesday and on through next weekend will be dominated by a ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S. temperatures will be determined by the coverage of valley fog and low clouds with temperatures rising above seasonal averages in the foothill and mountain areas.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds through Monday with periods of variable high clouds above the fog and with partial afternoon clearing. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. a chance of light showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly north of Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday with patchy night and morning fog. Widespread night and morning fog and low clouds with some afternoon clearing Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/31/56/32/56 | Reedley 54/31/55/32/57 | Dinuba 53/30/55/32/57 | |
| Porterville 56/30/56/31/59 | Lindsay 56/30/57/32/59 | Delano 56/31/56/33/60 | |
| Bakersfield 56/38/60/42/64 | Taft 58/40/61/44/64 | Arvin 57/33/61/34/64 | |
| Lamont 56/33/61/38/63 | Pixley 55/31/56/37/61 | Tulare 53/31/56/34/58 | |
| Woodlake 54/31/56/33/59 | Hanford 53/33/56/35/59 | Orosi 54/30/56/33/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Light showers possible 42/60 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 40/58 |
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 38/58 |
Friday
Am fog/pm sun 35/58 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 36/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 25 through January 31: this model is now indicating there will be a greater than average possibility of precipitation during this time frame. This configuration will also allow for temperatures to be fairly close to seasonal averages.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: The only chance of rain over the next week, and quite possibly longer, will be Tuesday and Tuesday night. however, models show a split occurring off the central coast before the frontal system and trough move onshore. This usually robs weather systems of much of their energy. For now, only a chance of light showers is likely with most locations recording less than .10. it’s possible Kern County may remain dry. Dry weather will follow Wednesday through next weekend and possibly well into the following week.
Frost Discussion: Navelencia, Ivanhoe, Exeter, and west Porterville all dropped to 29 degrees as of 7:00am for the coldest locations I could find. The vast majority of locations have chilled into the lower 30s with a few mid 30s in Kern County. There is widespread fog and low clouds over many sections of the valley this morning. With considerable high clouds above the low cloud deck, clearing may be quite slow, especially near the center of the valley.
Lows tonight in the coldest locations again have the potential of dropping to 28 to 29 degrees with most locations in the low to mid 30s. the behavior of the fog and low clouds may also play a central role in some areas. Add to that a veil of high clouds above the valley floor and we have a rather complex forecast.
For now, I’m going to operate under the assumption that these clouds are too thin to have much impact on the radiational cooling process.
For Monday morning, we expect a thicker layer of mid and high level clouds which may keep temperatures in the mid 30s to even lower 40s, depending upon the density of the cloud cover.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be above freezing due to cloud cover and a chance of light showers. For now, it appears a dome of high pressure will seal in the valley from Wednesday through next weekend. Models are showing temperatures rising, especially during the day. For now, it looks like above freezing conditions will prevail each night.
Medium range models still do not show a cold weather pattern skulking around the coastline, waiting to move in.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30` |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
Mcfarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
34 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/100%
Actual Humidity range January 17, 2020: Delano, 100%/69% Porterville, 99%/68%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .42, Parlier .35, Blackwell Corner .40, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .36, Delano .40. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 48, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1165 -316
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.2 +1.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.18. Month to Date: .65 -.59
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.22. Month to Date: .23 -.41
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 618, Parlier 687, Arvin 499, Shafter 582, Stratford 582, Delano 658, Lindcove 762, Porterville 1009
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 Sunset: 5:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:59
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 52 / 34 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 36 / 0.20 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 33 / 0.35 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 30 / 0.14 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 38 / 0.18 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1538 / 52 / 32 / 0.41 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 51 / 33 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 54 / 32 / 0.37 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 52 / 34 / 0.05 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.14 83 7.69 124 6.22 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.85 70 6.31 115 5.49 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 107 6.00 115 5.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.89 54 4.47 83 5.38 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.53 75 4.00 85 4.71 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 68 3.32 72 4.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 108 2.27 87 2.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 50 3.23 140 2.31 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 5.88 111 5.59 105 5.32 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 127 6.35 122 5.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.77 86 6.38 115 5.54 13.95
Next report: January 18/afternoon