January 23, 2020
Summary: A ridge of high pressure is above California this morning. a relatively strong warm air inversion is now in place over the valley floor. The freezing level was 11,500 feet above Vandenberg which illustrates that warm bubble of subsiding air above central California. The fog and low clouds will burn off in most areas by early afternoon, revealing some higher clouds above the fog layer.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California late tonight and Friday. Showers will generally stay north of a Bay Area/Tahoe line.
The next ridge of high pressure will move in Friday night and Saturday but will quickly move eastward, followed by the next trough of low pressure which is stronger. Models continue to indicate the southern limit of possible measurable rain from this event will be the Kern County mountains, however the dynamics of this system in the south valley will be quite weak so only light amounts of precipitation are expected.
The next ridge of high pressure will build eastward over California late Sunday night and Monday followed by yet another trough of low pressure Monday night and Tuesday. For now, it looks like the rain line will stay north of central California. A stronger ridge will build further north Tuesday night and beyond, driving the storm track into British Columbia and Washington state. In fact, models encompassing the remainder of January are indicating persistent high pressure will be over the western 1/3 of the U.S. for a continuation of dry weather and the usual night and morning fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds, burning off by early afternoon in most areas with partly cloudy skies above the fog. Areas of fog and low clouds late tonight and Friday morning with variable cloudiness Friday afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds Friday night and Saturday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Light showers Sunday, diminishing Sunday evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning with areas of fog and low clouds Monday morning. partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/40/61/41/61 | Reedley 62/40/62/42/62 | Dinuba 60/39/61/41/61 | |
| Porterville 63/40/61/41/62 | Lindsay 61/39/61/40/62 | Delano 63/41/63/42/62 | |
| Bakersfield 65/46/63/47/64 | Taft 64/47/63/47/64 | Arvin 65/42/61/42/64 | |
| Lamont 63/42/61/43/64 | Pixley 63/40/62/41/62 | Tulare 61/39/61/41/61 | |
| Woodlake 61/40/61/41/62 | Hanford 62/41/61/43/62 | Orosi 61/39/61/41/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Light showers 48/60 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 43/61 |
Tuesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 40/59 |
Wednesday
Am fog/pm sun 38/61 |
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 39/63 |
Two Week Outlook: January 30 through February 5: This model is showing a more dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in generally above average temperatures. This pattern is not conducive for precipitation.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Models have moved up the timeline just a tad for potential shower activity this weekend. It’s possible showers may overspread the valley after midnight Saturday night, continuing on and off through Sunday and diminishing by Sunday evening. This will be by no means a major winter storm. In fact, the valley portion of Kern County may struggle to record .10 with upwards of .25 in Madera and Fresno Counties and perhaps .20 over much of Tulare County. Dry weather will return Sunday night. the next system will move into northern California Tuesday, however the southern limit of precipitation will remain to our north. After Tuesday, strong ridging will take place for a prolonged period of dry weather which will more than likely last into early February.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 22, 2020: Delano, 100%/54% Porterville, 97%/52%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .34, Blackwell Corner .34, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .31, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 49, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 72/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1250 -328
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.6 +1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.50. Month to Date: .65 -.91
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.05. Month to Date: .23 -.58
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 664, Parlier 731, Arvin 549, Shafter 638, Stratford 633, Delano 717, Lindcove 836, Porterville 1105
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 Sunset: 5:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:07
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 50 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 51 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 45 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 44 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1532 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.03 5.17 78 7.91 119 6.64 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 3.86 65 6.35 107 5.91 13.11
MERCED 0.02 5.64 100 6.12 109 5.64 12.50
MADERA 0.01 2.90 51 4.58 80 5.74 12.02
FRESNO T 3.53 70 4.42 88 5.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 64 3.33 69 4.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 102 2.27 82 2.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 47 3.46 141 2.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.88 103 5.80 101 5.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 6.61 118 6.36 113 5.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 80 6.41 107 5.97 13.95
Next report: January 23/afternoon