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Forecast

January 24, 2020/report

January 24, 2020

Summary: Fog and low clouds are widespread over most of the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys this morning.  from Madera northward, mainly dense ground fog is occurring while the south valley has a combination of a low overcast and areas of ground fog.  With dew points continuing to run in the upper 40s and lower 50s during the afternoons, expect a repeat performance of the typical wintertime pea soup again tonight and Saturday morning.

 

Yesterday, forecast models for Sunday were beginning to nudge the rain line further north.  That trend continues this morning.  if you average out model information,  most, if not all, the showers will be from Fresno County north with only a minimal chance of light showers as far south as Kings and Tulare Counties.  Where precipitation does occur, it now appears that generally less than .10 is all that can be expected. The air mass associated with this trough originated over the mid Pacific, so if you were expecting some cooler weather behind this semi event, that simply is not going to occur.

 

Beginning Sunday night and Monday, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific across California and into the Great Basin.  Pacific storms will continue to ride over the top of this high and into the Pacific Northwest Monday through Wednesday with light showers affecting perhaps the northern 1/3 of the state.  From Wednesday night through next weekend, a strong area of upper level high pressure will build northward and eastward, covering the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western 1/3 of the U.S.  The storm track from Thursday on is projected to move into British Columbia and Washington state.  The general flow pattern next week will continue to be out of the west which is a mild pattern, so above average temperatures will continue.

 

This winter has been amazing in one respect and that is the lack of polar air masses moving into the lower 48 while much of Canada and Alaska have suffered from brutally cold weather, even by their standards, for much of the winter.

 

Expect plenty of low clouds and fog next week with some afternoon clearing…in other words, more of the same.

 

Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds this morning and again Saturday morning, clearing in most areas during the afternoons.  Partly cloudy Saturday evening.  Becoming mostly cloudy after midnight with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  Mostly cloudy Sunday with a chance of light showers, again mainly from Fresno County north.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday with widespread night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 61/42/61/44/63 Reedley 62/43/62/45/63 Dinuba 61/41/61/43/63
Porterville 63/43/62/45/63 Lindsay 62/41/62/44/62 Delano 61/44/61/45/62
Bakersfield 62/47/63/47/63 Taft 62/48/63/48/62 Arvin 63/43/63/45/63
Lamont 62/44/63/45/63 Pixley 63/42/61/44/62 Tulare 61/41/61/43/62
Woodlake 62/41/62/44/61 Hanford 62/43/62/45/63 Orosi 61/41/61/44/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Am fog/partly cloudy

41/65

Tuesday

Am fog/partly cloudy

40/60

Wednesday

Am fog/mostly clear

40/61

Thursday

Am fog/mostly clear

41/62

Friday

Am fog/mostly clear

41/64

 

Two Week Outlook: January 30 through February 5:  This model is showing a more dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in generally above average temperatures. This pattern is not conducive for precipitation.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.

 

Rain:  Yesterday, models began to nudge the southern limit of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday further north.  That trend continues this morning, even more so.  It appears most of the precipitation Sunday will occur from Fresno County north and even there, generally less than .10 can be anticipated with perhaps trace amounts down into Kings and Tulare Counties.  Beginning Sunday night, a prolonged period of dry weather will begin as the storm track migrates back into the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time.  A much larger ridge will take over from next Wednesday night through the weekend for no chance of precipitation.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 65%/95%

 

Actual Humidity range January 23, 2020: Delano, 100%/80% Porterville, 99%/62%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 40%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .29, Parlier .33, Blackwell Corner .30, Arvin .33, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .29, Delano .30. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 50, Delano 47

Record Temperatures: 78/24. Average Temperatures: 56/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1263 -334

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 46.8 +2.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.57.  Month to Date: .65 -.98

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.82, or +.01.  Month to Date: .23 -.62

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 664,  Parlier 731,  Arvin 549, Shafter 638, Stratford 633, Delano 717, Lindcove 836, Porterville 1105

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:06  Sunset: 5:16 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:09

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  63 /  44 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  41 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  61 /  41 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  57 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  37 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  61 /  45 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  62 /  37 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /  54 /  47 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  59 /   M / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.17    77    7.91   118     6.73    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.86    64    6.35   106     5.99    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.64    99    6.12   107     5.71    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    50    4.58    79     5.80    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.53    69    4.42    87     5.10    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    64    3.33    68     4.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.82   100    2.27    81     2.81     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.16    47    3.46   140     2.47     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.88   101    5.80   100     5.81    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.61   116    6.36   112     5.70    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.79    79    6.41   106     6.06    13.95

 

Next report: January 24/afternoon