January 25, 2020
Summary: A low overcast remained over much of the valley overnight, resulting in mild temperatures this morning with most locations in the upper 40s. The base of the overcast ranged from 2,900 feet over Lemoore to 3,900 feet over Bakersfield. The fact that the overcast is lifting is a good indication that it will dissipate later today. However, above the fog is a higher cloud deck ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure which will give a chance of light showers to the valley later tonight and Sunday. The main trough passage will occur during the late morning hours Sunday. Essentially, the further south you go, the weaker the dynamics with this system, so it’s possible some locations in the south valley, especially in Kern County, may not even see measurable precipitation.
A northwesterly flow will develop behind the trough, resulting in upslope cloud development against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. This could result in some drizzle or even light rain near the base of the mountains Sunday afternoon and night. the air mass behind this incoming system is only marginally cooler, so the valley will remain free of frost for this upcoming week.
Monday through Wednesday will be characterized by a flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extending inland over California and into the interior west. Pacific storms will ride up over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest. From Wednesday night through this coming weekend, an even stronger high will build further north, putting a clamp on the valley. Each day through the upcoming week will see fog and low clouds nights and mornings with afternoon clearing most days. Even the models going out through the first week of February are indicating the chance of precipitation is quite low with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Low overcast and fog this morning. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Mostly cloudy tonight and Sunday with a chance of showers after midnight, mainly north of Kern County. Light showers likely from Fresno County northward Sunday with a chance of light showers over Kings and Tulare Counties and a slight chance in Kern County. Mostly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning with patchy fog Monday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday with considerable amounts of night and morning fog. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday with extensive night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/47/63/40/60 | Reedley 62/45/63/41/60 | Dinuba 60/44/62/39/61 | |
| Porterville 63/46/63/39/61 | Lindsay 63/44/63/38/60 | Delano 63/45/61/41/61 | |
| Bakersfield 63/48/61/44/60 | Taft 64/48/62/44/60 | Arvin 63/44/61/41/61 | |
| Lamont 63/44/61/42/61 | Pixley 63/44/63/39/61 | Tulare 61/43/63/38/59 | |
| Woodlake 61/44/63/39/61 | Hanford 61/45/63/42/59 | Orosi 61/43/63/38/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 36/58` |
Wednesday
Am fog/mostly clear 36/60 |
Thursday
Am fog/mostly clear 37/62 |
Friday
Am fog/mostly clear 38/63 |
Saturday
Am fog/mostly clear 39/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 1 through February 7: This model is showing a more dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in generally above average temperatures. This pattern is not conducive for precipitation.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: The chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County, will begin tonight and last possibly until 2:00 or 3:00pm Sunday afternoon. It appears the best chance of rain will be during the late morning hours when the actual trough will be overhead. Rainfall amounts from this anemic system will be generally at or less than .10. Locally more is possible but not likely. It’s possible no measurable rain will occur at all in portions of the south valley, especially in Kern County. This will be the last storm we’ll see for quite some time as a blocking ridge pattern will set up Sunday night, lasting through at least mid week with an even stronger high building further north Wednesday night through next weekend. Models going out through the first week in February are not encouraging for precipitation.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 65%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 24, 2020: Delano, 100%/86% Porterville, 97%/84%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .31, Blackwell Corner .29, Arvin .28, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .26, Delano .27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 75/24. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1276 -340
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.0 +2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.63. Month to Date: .65 -1.04
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or -.03. Month to Date: .23 -.66
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 674, Parlier 745, Arvin 568, Shafter 658, Stratford 647, Delano 731, Lindcove 858, Porterville 1132
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 Sunset: 5:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 55 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1507 / 62 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 56 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.17 76 7.91 116 6.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.86 64 6.35 105 6.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.64 98 6.12 106 5.77 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 49 4.58 78 5.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.53 68 4.42 86 5.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 63 3.33 67 4.94 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 99 2.27 80 2.85 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 46 3.46 138 2.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.88 100 5.80 98 5.90 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 114 6.36 110 5.79 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 78 6.41 104 6.14 13.95
Next report: January 25/afternoon