January 27, 2020
Summary: Upslope clouds continue to regenerate against the foothills in Tulare and Kern Counties. Elsewhere, there are areas of ground fog. As of 7:00am, Bakersfield and Porterville were down to ¼ mile visibility while Visalia was reporting ½ mile. Yesterday’s anemic trough passage has moved into the interior west, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific to build into central and southern California. The latest Pacific storm is now moving into Oregon and roughly the northern ¼ of California, but just partly cloudy skies prevail over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley. This pattern will continue through mid week. However, after a system moves through the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday, it will dive southeastward into the Great Basin followed quickly by a surface high which will generate a fairly strong off shore flow Wednesday through Thursday.
A large high over the eastern Pacific will begin to build inland Thursday then shift eastward right over California this weekend, driving temperatures well above average. Assuming the fog doesn’t take over, temperatures could possibly eclipse the 70 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. The main challenge for Tuesday through the weekend will be how extensive the fog and low clouds become.
The pattern beginning Monday of next week is a bit more interesting. A massive high will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean while a cold trough of low pressure digs southward into the interior west. This pattern could drive colder air into California from the north. Although it’s not a freeze pattern, it’s one I’ll have to watch in the coming days.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings, otherwise it’ll be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Wednesday. widespread night and morning fog with hazy afternoon sunshine Wednesday night through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with patchy morning fog.
Short Term:
Madera 58/37/58/37/57 | Reedley 59/36/58/36/57 | Dinuba 58/35/58/36/56 | |
Porterville 59/37/58/37/57 | Lindsay 58/35/58/36/56 | Delano 60/39/58/39/58 | |
Bakersfield 60/43/59/43/56 | Taft 60/45/58/44/56 | Arvin 60/41/58/41/56 | |
Lamont 59/39/58/40/57 | Pixley 59/37/58/37/57 | Tulare 58/36/58/36/57 | |
Woodlake 59/37/59/37/57 | Hanford 59/39/58/39/56 | Orosi 58/35/58/36/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 38/61 |
Friday
Am fog/pm sun 40/64 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 41/69 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 43/69 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 38/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 3 through February 9: This model indicates a large high will be off the north American continent with an equally large trough of low pressure over the interior west. This will result in a northerly flow with below average temperatures. The storm track is well north so precipitation is unlikely.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue through at least next Monday and possibly Tuesday. Some models are showing a pattern where a massive high builds off the coast of North America with a cold trough of low pressure digging southward into the interior western U.S. If this pattern does set up, a dry northerly flow would develop up and down the west coast for the possibility of colder weather by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. It’s unclear how far west the potential cold air mass would encroach. For now, I’m not calling for below freezing weather, but it is something I want to keep a close eye on in the coming days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/100%
Actual Humidity range January 26, 2020: Delano, 100%/77% Porterville, 97%/68%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .39, Parlier .34, Blackwell Corner .35, Arvin .33, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .32, Delano .36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 52, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 57/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1293 -361
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.7 +2.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.76. Month to Date: .65 -1.17
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.09. Month to Date: .23 -.72
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 675, Parlier 745, Arvin 578, Shafter 658, Stratford 650, Delano 731, Lindcove 858, Porterville 1155
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 Sunset: 5:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:14
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 49 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 50 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 48 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1607 / 62 / 45 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 47 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 46 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 62 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.10 5.27 75 7.91 113 7.00 14.06
MODESTO 0.06 3.92 63 6.35 102 6.25 13.11
MERCED 0.05 5.69 97 6.12 104 5.87 12.50
MADERA T 2.90 49 4.58 77 5.94 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 3.54 67 4.42 83 5.30 11.50
HANFORD T 3.12 62 3.33 67 5.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 2.83 97 2.27 78 2.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 45 3.46 136 2.55 5.18
SALINAS 0.11 5.99 99 5.80 96 6.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 6.61 111 6.36 107 5.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 4.79 76 6.41 101 6.32 13.95
Next report: January 27/afternoon