January 30, 2020
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are running anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. That’s partly due to considerably more sunshine today and partly due to increasing pressure above California. The main high center is still off shore, but will continue to build eastward with the center of circulation just west of Monterey by Saturday morning. warmest locations as early as Friday afternoon will push the 70 degree mark, mainly in Kern County. A number of locations should reach into the lower 70s Saturday.
A radical change will begin Sunday as a rapidly developing and very cold weather system drives southward right along the Canadian coast to a position either just east of the Sierra Nevada or right over central California by Sunday evening. Ahead of the low will be a fast moving cold front which will spread light snow showers down the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with a continuing possibility of light showers on the valley floor, mainly near the foothills. The main challenge with this system will be cold weather which will completely buck the dominant pattern of this winter.
A large ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build northward into Alaska, allowing a modified arctic trough of low pressure to cover the interior western U.S. the center of this system will be over the Four Corners region by Monday night. California will be in a sandwich between the off shore high and the low to our east, creating a north to south flow right down the North American continent and into the western U.S.
A frost or freeze event is likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings and we’ll have to scrutinize the situation for Monday, as well. More in the frost discussion below.
Moderation will begin Wednesday night and Thursday as the high off shore shifts into the western U.S. and California. The pattern for next weekend is also quite interesting as another low pressure system is projected to dive southward from Canada and into the western United States. Models are also all over the place with potential precipitation and/or cold weather.
Forecast: Other than areas of low clouds and fog nights and mornings and occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday night with well above average temperatures. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday morning with gusty northwesterly winds and much cooler temperatures. There is also a continuing possibility of light showers from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning and cold. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/65/41/71 | Reedley 37/66/41/71 | Dinuba 37/65/40/70 | |
| Porterville 37/67/41/71 | Lindsay 37/67/40/71 | Delano 40/68/42/71 | |
| Bakersfield 41/68/44/73 | Taft 45/67/45/71 | Arvin 40/68/43/73 | |
| Lamont 41/68/43/73 | Pixley 38/67/42/71 | Tulare 37/66/41/71 | |
| Woodlake 37/65/41/70 | Hanford 40/66/42/71 | Orosi 37/65/40/70 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday night. Winds Sunday and Sunday night will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Saturday night. one model this afternoon moves the Sunday/Sunday night storm right overhead instead over western Nevada. If this is the way it goes, we’ll have a greater possibility for light showers Sunday into Monday morning. models have not changed their tune on the fact that this will be a moisture starved event, so if precipitation does occur, it would be less than .10. Even over the mountains, snow amounts will be rather scant. Expect dry weather Monday afternoon and for the remainder of next week, although there is some conflict on modeling information for next weekend.
Frost Discussion: Taking a look at models just out this afternoon, we find numbers in the low to mid 30s for Monday morning, mid to upper 20s Tuesday morning and just slightly milder temperatures for Wednesday morning. this event may turn out to be the coldest of this very mild winter so far. There will be a strong northwesterly flow at the surface Monday morning and a strong northerly flow aloft. For the first part of this event, upslope clouds will accumulate in the south valley with clearing skies along the west side. Temperatures Monday morning will largely be determined by surface winds and potential cloud cover or the lack thereof.
As northerly winds continue above central California and gusty surface winds move down the valley, especially along the west side, dew points will lower. On Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, depending on where dew points finally settle in, coldest river bottom and like locations have the potential of dropping down into the 25 to 28 degree range with flat terrain operations ranging from 28 to 31. Typically, the first and sometimes second night of a cold pattern see weak inversions. It should tighten up by Wednesday morning.
Now that we’re into February’s forecast, one piece of good news is the fact that the sun angle is somewhat higher than it was four weeks ago and day light is about an hour longer. Expect moderation to begin Thursday morning, continuing Friday and Saturday.
Medium range models vary a great deal, but there is the potential for another cold weather episode late next weekend and into the following week. I noted the new two week outlook for the7 through the 13 is indicating well below average temperatures for the western 2/3 of the U.S.
Next report: January 31/morning