February 1, 2020
Summary: Today will be quite spring like as soon as the fog burns off with warmest locations, especially in the south valley, moving into the lower 70s. Upper level high pressure is directly above us this morning. the freezing level is all the way up to 13,300 feet. That figure will quickly lower tonight and Sunday in response to a robust but moisture starved low pressure system which is currently diving southward and will already be in northern California early Sunday morning. a fast moving cold front will move through the valley Sunday, followed by a wintry air mass with modified arctic air.
On Monday, some locations on the valley floor may not even reach the 50 degree mark, especially in Kern County, where upslope clouds may inhibit the effects of the sun. a strong low center will develop over southern Nevada and Utah Monday as high pressure builds off shore. This, with a 120 MPH jet stream above central California, will be the driving force for strong, gusty, northwesterly winds Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts on the west side may approach 40 MPH. as these winds continue to move in from the northwest, dew points will plummet and likely will end up in the mid to upper 20s Monday afternoon, possibly lower on the west side. That, in part, will set the stage for a freeze event Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. The ugly numbers are discussed in the frost summary below.
The mid and upper level winds will continue to be out of the north, sliding down the back side of high pressure off shore then wrapping around that low over the interior west. High pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will finally begin to build eastward into California Thursday through Saturday. more than likely it will be Friday, and possibly even Saturday, before above freezing conditions become widespread.
Models for next Sunday and Monday continue to be quite interesting. Each model run is different, but there does seem to be a common theme and that is the formation of a very cold low over northern California, possibly even moving off shore over the central coast. On paper, however, this again seems to be a moisture starved feature, possibly followed by another round of cold temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear after the areas of fog burn off today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday morning with only a small chance of light showers Sunday afternoon and night. expect strong, gusty, northwesterly winds Sunday and Sunday night. mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday with chilly days and cold overnight low temperatures. Mostly clear skies with a warming trend Wednesday night through Saturday with just patchy late night and early morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/43/58/31/50 | Reedley 70/43/58/30/50 | Dinuba 69/42/57/30/49 | |
| Porterville 71/43/58/32/49 | Lindsay 71/43/58/31/50 | Delano 71/44/58/32/51 | |
| Bakersfield 73/46/60/34/48 | Taft 72/47/59/36/49 | Arvin 73/44/60/33/48 | |
| Lamont 72/44/59/33/49 | Pixley 71/44/58/32/52 | Tulare 69/43/57/31/50 | |
| Woodlake 69/41/58/31/51 | Hanford 70/43/58/32/51 | Orosi 69/42/57/31/49 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 27/52
|
Wednesday
Mostly clear 28/56 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 30/61 |
Friday
Mostly clear 33/62 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 8 through February 14: This model is depicting a rather chilly north to northeast flow from the Gulf of Alaska, or even west of Canada, into the western U.S. strong high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific so the chance of rain is low. Expect below average temperatures.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. By mid to late morning Sunday, winds will increase out of the northwest at 20 to 30 MPH at times with gusts possibly exceeding 40 MPH, mainly along the west side. Winds Sunday night will slowly decrease to around 10 to 20 MPH. Winds Monday will be out of the north to northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side, decreasing ot 8 to 15 MPH elsewhere. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially near the center and eastern sector of the valley.
Rain Discussion: Only a minimal chance of a few light showers exists Sunday afternoon and night along a fast moving cold front and a cold upper low which will quickly follow. Most of the activity will be confined to the mountain areas where snow will drop down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet, but even there amounts will be scant. Otherwise, this entire upcoming week will be dry. There will be another minimal chance of showers beginning a week from Sunday and the following Monday due to another very cold low. However, much has yet to be determined and we’re over a week out so this isn’t set in stone.
Frost Discussion: Tonight may be a good night to catch up on some sleep. A much colder air mass will arrive Sunday. I still feel most locations will be in the 30 to 34 degree range Monday sdue to upslope clouds along the Kern County mountains and the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Also, wind conditions will have a huge impact. Even where winds die off, a considerable amount of mixing will still be a factor. Despite this, there is a chance of lows down to 28 ot 29 degrees in river bottom or similar low lying location, but only if skies clear and winds die off. It is Tuesday and Wednesday that pose the biggest threat. It still looks like widespread mid to upper 20s will occur both mornings. With strong winds moving down the valley Monday, I anticipate dew points will be driven down into at least the mid to upper 20s. by Tuesday morning, winds will have died off and, with a continuing north/south flow aloft, drier and drier air will mix out any potential cloud cover. The very coldest unprotected low spots could drop down to 24 to 26 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with most flat terrain in the 27 to 31 degree range. Hillsides on Tuesday morning will range mostly in the lower 30s and possibly mid to upper 30s by Wednesday.
By Thursday morning, the air mass will begin to m odify as a ridge of upper level high pressure begins to move in from the west, bringing with it warmer air aloft. The warming will be most notable during the day, but will slowly drag up overnight lows. It may be Friday or Saturday before all locations will be above freezing.
I don’t really like the pattern beginning a week from Sunday as a cold overland low is projected to drop into northern California then will possibly slide down the central coast followed by another cold air mass. For now, I will just take a wait and see attitude and deal with what’s at hand for now.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/85%
Actual Humidity range January 31, 2020: Delano, 100%/62% Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .49, Parlier .36, Blackwell Corner .46, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .38, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 52, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 73/25. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1368 -375
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.0 +2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.12. Month to Date: .65 -1.53
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.29. Month to Date: .23 -.92
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 721, Parlier 790, Arvin 613, Shafter 706, Stratford 693, Delano 776, Lindcove 917, Porterville 1231
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:00 Sunset: 5:25 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:23
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 42 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 63 / 44 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 71 7.92 106 7.47 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 59 6.44 96 6.69 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 93 6.21 101 6.12 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 47 4.76 77 6.18 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 63 4.56 81 5.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 60 3.66 71 5.17 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 91 2.68 86 3.12 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 43 3.46 130 2.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 92 6.30 97 6.51 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 103 6.92 108 6.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 70 7.47 110 6.80 13.95
Next report: February 1/afternoon