February 2, 2020
Summary: The leading edge of a very cold air mass is moving through central California at this hour. As of 6:00am, models had the dry surface front right through Fresno County. The very cold upper low is hanging back a few hundred miles over Oregon and northern California. The freezing level taken at 6:00 this morning over Oakland was 11,800 feet, but to our north over Medford, Oregon, the freezing level had dropped to 2,200 feet, illustrating where the cold air is.
A surface low is rapidly developing over Nevada. Significant differences in pressure will set up between the northern California coast and the interior west, which will result in strong, gusty winds this afternoon and tonight. it is these winds in part that will drive down dew points, possibly into the low to mid 20s by Monday afternoon. Tonight will be the first of three very cold nights, however, it’s Tuesday and Wednesday we will be focusing on as winds die off and cloud cover disperses.
By Monday morning, the surface and upper lows will be over Utah while upper level high pressure builds northward just off the Pacific coast. A north to south flow of air will drive southward, bringing modified arctic air into the region through Wednesday. finally, by Wednesday night and Thursday, the off shore high will begin to shift eastward over California for the beginning of a warming trend. Daytime highs will begin to reflect this as early as Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures well into the 60s will occur Friday and Saturday when the high reaches its pinnacle.
Models are still placing a cold upper level low right over central California this coming Sunday. They show it moving slowly south over southern California Monday and Tuesday of next week. This basic pattern has been showing up for several days now. Since this storm is moving southward overland, yet another potential rain event will be shattered with just a chance of light showers mainly Sunday and Sunday night. medium range models do, however, show a chance of rain later next week along with well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Partly cloudy tonight. clearing in most areas during the early morning hours. Mostly clear and cold Monday through Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday with a warming trend. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a small chance of light showers Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/32/50/27/51 | Reedley 60/31/51/27/52 | Dinuba 59/30/51/26/51 | |
| Porterville 60/31/51/26/52 | Lindsay 60/30/51/26/52 | Delano 61/32/50/27/51 | |
| Bakersfield 62/32/50/29/52 | Taft 62/34/50/30/51 | Arvin 62/33/49/27/51 | |
| Lamont 61/33/51/28/52 | Pixley 60/31/50/26/53 | Tulare 59/30/51/25/51 | |
| Woodlake 60/31/51/26/52 | Hanford 60/32/51/27/52 | Orosi 60/30/50/25/51 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 27/57
|
Thursday
Mostly clear 30/61 |
Friday
Mostly clear 34/64 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 40/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 9 through February 15: This model is depicting a rather chilly north to northeast flow from the Gulf of Alaska, or even west of Canada, into the western U.S. strong high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific so the chance of rain is low. Expect below average temperatures.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light through mid morning then will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 30 MPH from late morning through the evening hours with gusts over 40 MPH possible, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties, but locally elsewhere. Winds later tonight will decrease to 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds Monday will be mainly out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing Monday evening. Winds Monday night through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: It appears the small chance of light showers we had from the current system moving through can be pretty much eliminated. Expect dry conditions for the remainder of the week. Models have been indicating a cold low will drop into California Sunday and Monday of next week. However, this system will originate in western Canada and will be taking a purely overland trajectory. This system will be moisture starved as a result with only a slight chance of light showers. Models do how, however, a chance of rain later next week.
Frost Discussion: Using freezing levels as a guide, you can certainly tell where the very cold air is located. As of 6:00 this morning, the freezing level was 11,800 feet over Oakland but over Medford, Oregon the sounding indicated a freezing level of just 2,200 feet. The cold air mass will begin to dive into central California as the day progresses. Dew points will be driven down in part due to strong, gusty, northwest winds down the valley.
For tonight, a combination of possible upslope clouds in Kern and Tulare Counties and wind conditions will keep many locations in the low to mid 30s. however, no doubt there will be some pockets along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley that, if skies clear and winds die off, will see lows down into the 27 to 29 degree range in those cold regions.
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may turn out to be the coldest of this winter. By then, skies will have cleared and dew points will have bottomed out and winds will have died off, setting the stage for strong radiational cooling. For now, I still believe dew points will end up in the low to mid 20s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The very coldest locations could potentially drop down to 23 to 25 degrees with most flatland terrain ranging from 26 to 29 degrees. Hillsides Tuesday morning will generally range from 29 to 32 degrees and 31 to 35 Wednesday morning.
Coldest unprotected low lying areas should drop to 32 degrees by 9:00pm Monday and Tuesday nights and 28 degrees by 1:00 to 2:00am, rising above 32 by 8:30 to 9:00am.
Some moderation will begin Thursday morning. even so, coldest locations could still drop into the upper 20s with many locations in the lower 30s.
We could see coldest locations in the lower 30s Friday morning then finally above freezing conditions Saturday and Sunday.
Models place a cold upper low over central California Sunday for a chance of light showers. The general pattern for next week is for well below average temperatures, but possibly more showers later in the week which hopefully would preclude below freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31` |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
30 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
34 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/5% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/80%
Actual Humidity range February 1, 2020: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, 99%/53%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .48, Parlier .40, Blackwell Corner .47, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .40, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 51, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 58/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1380 -381
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 53.0 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.19. Month to Date: .00. -.07
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.33. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 721, Parlier 798, Arvin 613, Shafter 713, Stratford 703, Delano 776, Lindcove 917, Porterville 1231
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:00 Sunset: 5:26 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / M / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 70 8.08 107 7.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 58 6.70 99 6.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 92 6.41 104 6.18 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 47 4.84 78 6.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 62 4.60 80 5.73 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 60 3.70 71 5.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 90 2.68 85 3.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 43 3.46 128 2.70 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 91 6.38 97 6.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 102 7.13 110 6.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 69 7.47 108 6.90 13.95
Next report: February 2/afternoon