February 3, 2020
Summary: tonight and tomorrow night will be the most dangerous we have seen for quite some time. Already this morning, upper 20s are widespread throughout the citrus belt north of Kern County with a spattering of mid 20s as of 7:00am. Tonight and tomorrow night will be colder, which is discussed in the frost report below.
This summary will be somewhat abbreviated so we can concentrate on the freeze situation below. A north/south flow of very dry cold air continues to move into California. The freezing level has dropped down to 3,700 feet over Vandenberg. A deep low pressure system at the surface and aloft is over Nevada and Utah while upper level high pressure is along the Pacific coast. That high will move inland Thursday through Saturday for a warming trend. A low will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into central California late Sunday and Monday for a chance of light showers. This system will also be very cold with yet another low dropping into California about the middle of next week for a higher risk of showers.
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold through Wednesday. mostly clear with a warming trend Wednesday night through Saturday. partly cloudy Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a minimal chance of light showers. A minimal chance of light showers will continue Sunday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/25/52/25/55 | Reedley 50/23/52/24/55 | Dinuba 50/22/52/23/54 | |
| Porterville 51/23/52/23/55 | Lindsay 51/22/52/22/56 | Delano 51/24/52/24/56 | |
| Bakersfield 50/28/52/28/56 | Taft 50/27/52/28/56 | Arvin 51/24/52/24/57 | |
| Lamont 51/25/52/25/55 | Pixley 50/24/52/24/56 | Tulare 50/22/52/23/54 | |
| Woodlake 51/23/52/23/55 | Hanford 51/25/52/26/55 | Orosi 50/22/52/23/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 28/60 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 35/65 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 38/60 |
Monday
Chance of showers 38/56 |
Two Week Outlook: February 10 through February 16: This model is depicting a rather chilly north to northeast flow from the Gulf of Alaska, or even west of Canada, into the western U.S. strong high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific so the chance of rain is low. Expect below average temperatures.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds towards the center and west side of the valley will be out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH today with stronger gusts. In eastern Fresno, Tulare, and Kern Counties, winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH. Winds tonight will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions after midnight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through at least Saturday night. We’ll maintain a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as a low pressure system moves through overland. There will be a greater possibility of showers Wednesday through Thursday of next week as models show a low pressure system skirting the coast of the Pacific Northwest then moving into northern and central California.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:30am, Sanger was reporting 25 degrees, Navelencia 24, Ivanhoe 25, with widespread upper 20s north of Kern County although Edison has dropped to 28 degrees over this past hour. Only Maricopa was slightly above freezing. Most of these locations at midnight were in the upper 30s to even the lower 40s then dropped rapidly when the winds died off.
Tonight and tomorrow night will be quite dangerous as the wind factor will be gone and clear skies will prevail. What makes this a dangerous forecast is the fact that A. This air mass is very cold with the air mass above us registering a freezing level of 3,700 feet and B. It’s very dry. Dew points at most locations have dropped into the mid to upper 20s and will likely dip into the low to mid 20s by this afternoon.
Coldest river bottom and similar unprotected locations have the potential to drop down to 21 to 23 degrees tonight with most flatland locations between 23 and 25 degrees. Even hillsides will drop into the upper 20s. coldest locations tonight will drop to 32 degrees by 8:30 or shortly thereafter then will be at or below 28 degrees from 11:00pm to 1:00am. Most locations will not rise above freezing until about 9:00 Tuesday morning.
The inversion tonight will be fairly weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 4 degrees warmer, though possibly a bit better towards sunrise. Similar conditions can be expected Wednesday morning except the inversion should be somewhat more substantial.
Thursday morning will be no picnic either as coldest locations will drop into the mid 20s with widespread upper 20s and hillsides slightly above freezing. Upper 20s and lower 30s can be expected at most locations Friday morning with low to mid 30s Saturday morning. in general, above freezing conditions can be expected Sunday and Monday mornings as cloud cover moves in. that system will also be very cold as it is another overland storm system with very cold air to follow. By Wednesday of next week, hopefully a more substantial system will result in a better chance of showers and above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
23 |
Porterville
22 |
Ivanhoe
21 |
Woodlake
22 |
| Strathmore
23 |
Mcfarland
22 |
Ducor
24 |
Tea Pot Dome
22 |
| Lindsay
22 |
Exeter
22 |
Famoso
24 |
Madera
25 |
| Belridge
22 |
Delano
24 |
North Bakersfield
24 |
Orosi
22 |
| Orange Cove
23 |
Lindcove
22 |
Lindcove Hillside
28 |
Sanger River Bottom
21 |
| Root Creek
22 |
Venice Hill
23 |
Rosedale
25 |
Jasmine
24 |
| Arvin
25 |
Lamont
25 |
Plainview
23 |
Mettler
26 |
| Edison
25 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland Creek
25 |
Tivy Valley
22 |
| Kite Road South
25 |
Kite Road North
22 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Low to mid 20s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/60%
Actual Humidity range February 2, 2020: Delano, 100%/40% Porterville, 99%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .53, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corner .51, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .45, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 51, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 77/25. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1393 -385
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 52. +4.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.27. Month to Date: .00. -.15
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.38. Month to Date: .00 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 737, Parlier 809, Arvin 631, Shafter 723, Stratford 714, Delano 794, Lindcove 940, Porterville 1258
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 Sunset: 5:27 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:26
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 69 8.40 110 7.66 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 57 7.38 107 6.87 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 91 6.95 111 6.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 46 5.40 86 6.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 61 5.11 88 5.81 11.50
HANFORD T 3.12 59 4.34 83 5.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 88 2.78 87 3.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 42 3.91 143 2.73 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 90 6.88 103 6.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 100 8.28 126 6.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 68 8.22 117 7.00 13.95
Next report: February 3/afternoon