February 4, 2020
Summary: Dew points at most locations are lower this afternoon than they were yesterday afternoon and are running in the upper teens to the mid 20s. interestingly enough, the lowest dew points are in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County, which is a flip flop from what we’d normally see. These conditions are discussed in detail in the frost summary below.
The weather pattern itself has not changed much. That cold low is now centered over eastern Utah and Colorado with a trough extending south/southwest into Arizona. Upper level high pressure remains just off the Pacific coast, continuing the northerly flow aloft above California. Satellite imagery indicates there are high, thin clouds within this flow which will be visible from time to time, but the clouds will not be dense enough to interfere with radiational cooling.
Wednesday night and Thursday are when the real modification process will begin as that off shore high begins to shift over California, blocking the northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will come up incrementally each day through Saturday with mostly clear skies. A weak and moisture starved upper low will develop in southwest Canada Friday then will drop southward into central California Sunday night and Monday. Models are still showing a very moisture starved event with just a chance of light showers, mainly over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. This system will drop into southern California and northwest Mexico Tuesday.
Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a large high will build northward all the way into Alaska. Models do not show an inside slider this time around, but rather a dry, north/northwest flow down the west coast for a dry and potentially cold weather pattern. For now, it doesn’t appear it will be quite as cold as the current system, but it will still deserve close scrutiny.
Forecast: Other than high, thin clouds at times, it will be mostly clear and cold tonight. mostly clear Wednesday and a bit warmer. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday with a slow warming trend. Partly cloudy Saturday night. variable cloudiness at times Sunday through Monday with a slight chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 25/55/29/61 | Reedley 26/55/29/62 | Dinuba 24/54/29/60 | |
| Porterville 26/55/30/62 | Lindsay 25/55/29/61 | Delano 26/56/30/62 | |
| Bakersfield 29/56/33/62 | Taft 28/56/35/62 | Arvin 26/56/31/62 | |
| Lamont 26/56/31/63 | Pixley 25/55/29/61 | Tulare 25/54/29/60 | |
| Woodlake 26/54/30/60 | Hanford 26/54/30/61 | Orosi 25/54/29/60 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: We’ll keep a slight chance of a few light showers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as a weak low pressure system moves through. This system is tracking north to south overland so its moisture field will be quite limited and generally in the higher elevations. After Monday, dry conditions will return for several days.
Frost Discussion: As of 1:00pm, dew points were alarmingly low in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County. The dew point at Bakersfield was only 18, 19 at Porterville, 26 at Visalia, 24 at Hanford, 23 at Fresno, and 28 at Madera.
Only some high, thin clouds will be visible overhead tonight which will not interfere with widespread mid to upper 20s. the very coldest unprotected river bottom and like locations will dip down to 22 to 24 with most flat land locations ranging from 25 to 28 degrees. Hillsides will be in the banana belt with readings in the low to mid 30s.
The inversion tonight should be fairly decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 7 degrees warmer.
The moderation process will finally begin Wednesday and Wednesday night as temperatures finally start to rise and dew points start to recover. Lows Thursday morning will range from 27 to 29 in the coldest spots and from 29 to 33 elsewhere. Low to mid 30s are likely Friday then generally above freezing conditions over the weekend.
Medium range models continue to deserve close scrutiny. A moisture starved low will track overland through California Sunday night and Monday for a slight chance of showers. After this system moves through, a large high will build along the Pacific coast and into Alaska. Models this afternoon fortunately show more of a north/northwest flow which would be marginally milder than the northerly flow showing up the past few days. Still, there’s time for this to change.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
25 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
24 |
Woodlake
26 |
| Strathmore
26 |
Mcfarland
26 |
Ducor
25 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
25 |
Delano
26 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
25 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
24 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
27 |
Jasmine
26 |
| Arvin
26 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
27 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
26 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 5/morning