February 5, 2020
Summary: Rapid warming is occurring just above the valley floor this afternoon. Both Sandberg and Blue Canyon are reporting 52 degrees. Sandberg is at 4,100 feet and Blue Canyon 5,600 feet and they’re both 14 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. On the valley floor, temperatures are 3 to 4 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon at this time. Dew points are still very low and are generally in the low to mid 20s. Some locations are up a few degrees while others are actually down. Still, with the warming taking place above, that factor alone will mix down to the valley floor meaning minimum temperatures will begin to slowly recover, as well.
The cold trough of low pressure has now moved into the Mississippi Valley while the off shore high is shifting eastward into California. The northerly flow of the last 72 hours is now becoming northwesterly which makes a huge difference in temperatures aloft. The high will continue to shift eastward through Saturday. temperatures will respond accordingly with a nice warming trend.
A weak moisture starved low will begin in southwest Canada and slide southward, centering over south/central California by Monday morning. for the past several days, models have painted this system as just bringing the possibility of light showers to the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains. The chance of rain on the valley floor remains extremely low. This system will move into Arizona by Tuesday followed by the next moisture starved system at midweek.
Models are now indicating this will be a large area of low pressure stretching from northeast to southwest from central Canada to central California. I wouldn’t completely rule out the chance of light showers, but this also is the type of system where precipitation is confined to the higher elevations. More chances of light rain show up for weekend after next, too far in the future to accurately forecast around. This whole scenario, however, is favorable for transporting cold air southward from the north or even northeast, resulting in well below average temperatures. I’m not yet ready to put another round of subfreezing temperatures in the forecast for the medium term, just alerting you to a possibility.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday night with a warming trend. Variable cloudiness at times later Sunday through Monday night with a slight chance of light showers mainly near the foothills. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/59/34/64 | Reedley 31/60/35/65 | Dinuba 29/60/33/63 | |
| Porterville 30/62/34/66 | Lindsay 30/61/34/65 | Delano 32/62/35/65 | |
| Bakersfield 35/62/39/67 | Taft 37/72/40/66 | Arvin 32/62/35/66 | |
| Lamont 33/63/37/66 | Pixley 31/62/35/64 | Tulare 30/61/34/63 | |
| Woodlake 30/61/34/64 | Hanford 32/61/36/64 | Orosi 29/61/33/64 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: There’s a slight chance of light showers Sunday night through Monday night, mainly near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains as a very cold, moisture starved upper low moves through. From this juncture, I would say the chance of measurable rain at any given location is less than 20%. There will be another smaller chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday as another cold trough extends from central Canada to central California. This system is also an overland trajectory storm, so the chance of rain on the valley floor will remain very low with a greater risk of snow showers over the Sierra Nevada. Medium range models for weekend after next show an unsettled pattern, but there’s much to be determined between now and then.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures are running 3 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dew points are up a few degrees at some locations and down in others. The good news is, temperatures just above the valley floor are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Some of that air will begin to mix down to the valley floor, slowly moving temperatures in the right direction.
Coldest locations tonight will dip down to 28 to29 degrees with most flatland locations nudging up into the lower 30s. hillsides will be above freezing. On Friday and Saturday mornings, lows will drop generally into the 30s with very coldest locations teasing with the freezing mark. For Sunday and beyond, expect above freezing conditions, at least for a while. The pattern for Wednesday through Friday, we could see below freezing temperatures. For now, however, it appears there may be enough cloud cover and wind for generally above freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
34 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 6/morning