February 5, 2020
Summary: Temperatures overnight were uniformly in the mid to upper 20s. finally, there is plenty of evidence this morning that the modification process has begun. The freezing level yesterday was 4,100 feet. That jumped up to 10,100 feet over Vandenberg this morning and 10,200 over Oakland. This is a good indication that the off shore ridge of upper level high pressure is beginning to shift inland. There will be subfreezing temperatures again tonight, but most locations should see 3 to 5 degrees of improvement over this morning’s outcome. By this evening, the northerly flow which was responsible for the cold weather the past few days, will turn northwesterly due to the shift of the high pressure system.
The high will dominate the pattern through Saturday. by Thursday afternoon, warmer locations will be eclipsing the 60 degree mark then rise into the mid 60s Friday and Saturday. there is, however, more cold weather on the horizon. A moisture starved low pressure system will track southward from southwest Canada and will move to a position over California Monday. There is a reasonably decent chance of light showers up and down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains, but the dynamics are such that measurable at any given location on the valley floor is unlikely.
By Wednesday of next week, a low which will develop right along the British Columbia coastline will be over Washington state then will race southeastward into the Great Basin by Wednesday evening. Models yesterday were looking towards drier conditions with this system. Generally speaking, they show a marginally higher risk of showers this morning. but the bottom line is it doesn’t look too impressive. For the second day in a row, however, models are showing a long north/northwest flow will develop, pumping chilly air into the U.S. a large high pressure system will be over the eastern Pacific Ocean, ridging into Alaska, so the origins of this air mass will be very cold. So far, though, it looks to be a north/northwest flow rather than northerly or northeasterly which would go a long way in preventing yet another freeze situation.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday. partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday. Variable cloudiness Saturday night and Monday with a slight chance of light showers, mainly near the foothills. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers again Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/33/61/33/64 | Reedley 56/31/61/34/64 | Dinuba 54/30/60/33/63 | |
| Porterville 56/30/61/33/64 | Lindsay 54/30/61/33/65 | Delano 56/31/61/35/65 | |
| Bakersfield 56/35/62/37/66 | Taft 56/36/62/40/65 | Arvin 56/31/62/34/65 | |
| Lamont 56/31/63/35/65 | Pixley 55/30/61/33/65 | Tulare 54/29/61/32/63 | |
| Woodlake 55/30/61/33/64 | Hanford 56/32/61/35/65 | Orosi 54/30/61/33/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 40/53 |
Monday
Chance of showers 39/53 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 35/61 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 34/58 |
Two Week Outlook: February 11 through February 16: This model is depicting a rather chilly north to northeast flow from the Gulf of Alaska, or even west of Canada, into the western U.S. strong high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific so the chance of rain is low. Expect below average temperatures.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: There will be two small chances of measurable rain in the upcoming week. One is Sunday night and Monday when a moisture starved low pressure system tracks across central California for a decent chance of light showers along the Sierra Nevada and a smaller chance over the Kern County mountains. I would put the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor at no more than 20% and even then mainly near the foothills. Yet another moisture starved system will move through Wednesday through Thursday. Yesterday, models began to indicate this system will take an overland trajectory. This morning, the low is partially over water which would give it a slightly higher chance of rain for the valley floor. For now, we’ll go ahead and keep the chance quite low.
Frost Discussion: Lows this morning were almost uniformly between 25 and 29 degrees at citrus stations. The only exception was Edison which by 6:30 had dropped to 31. Significantly warmer air is moving in aloft as freezing levels have gone from 4,100 feet yesterday to more than 10,000 feet this morning. that will begin to be reflected in milder highs this afternoon as most locations move into the mid to upper 50s. overnight lows are always the slowest to respond but I think most locations should range 2 to 4 degrees warmer tonight than last night.
Coldest overnight lows tonight will range from 28 to 29 degrees with most locations in the lower 30s and above freezing conditions on hillsides. The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees warmer.
On Friday morning, widespread low to mid 30s are expected with generally above freezing conditions Saturday morning and beyond.
In the medium range outlook, a cold moisture starved low pressure system will move through Sunday night and Monday with colder daytime highs. However, for now it looks like cloud cover will prevent freezing conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold system will arrive Wednesday through Thursday with at least a slight chance of showers. The flow behind this system will be quite cold as a big upper high builds along the Pacific Coast and into Alaska, creating a north/northwest flow. For now, I’m not ready to indicate another round of below freezing temperatures for next week, but it is a pattern that deserves close scrutiny and I will keep you posted.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
30 |
Mcfarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Low to mid 20s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/60%
Actual Humidity range February 3, 2020: Delano, 95%/34% Porterville, 95%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .57, Parlier .45, Blackwell Corner .55, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .46, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 51, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 77/28. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1415 -380
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 49.3. +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.34. Month to Date: .00. -.22
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.42. Month to Date: .00 -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 756, Parlier 827, Arvin 648, Shafter 739, Stratford 729, Delano 811, Lindcove 958, Porterville 1277
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 Sunset: 5:28 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:29
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 55 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 50 / 28 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 68 9.04 116 7.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 56 7.53 108 6.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 90 7.04 112 6.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 46 5.43 86 6.34 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 60 5.13 87 5.88 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 59 4.58 86 5.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 87 2.92 90 3.25 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 42 3.99 145 2.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 88 6.90 102 6.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 99 8.93 134 6.68 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 67 8.45 119 7.11 13.95
Next report: February 5/afternoon