February 6, 2020
Summary: Another night of subfreezing conditions as temperatures were generally in the upper 20s and lower 30s throughout the citrus belt. The overall pattern, however, is definitely turning in the proper direction for modification. The northerly flow which resulted in freeze conditions the past few nights has now been cut off. A northwesterly flow is now in place around the eastern side of high pressure off the California coast. The high will continue to dominate our weather through Saturday as temperatures move into the lower 60s this afternoon and mid to upper 60s Friday through Saturday.
Models have been pretty consistent the past few days on tracking a cold upper low which will be starved for moisture. It’s projected to move southward from the Pacific Northwest, centering over south/central California by late Sunday night and over southern California by Monday afternoon. The chance for light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains is certainly there. However, the chance of rain on the valley floor is extremely low. As we fall further and further behind rainfall averages, we look at medium and long range models, however they’re not showing anything encouraging for the next seven to ten days.
After Tuesday, a massive high will build along the North American coast into Alaska, but the configuration will be such where cold air will dive into the Rockies, not the valley. Weak impulses will be embedded within this flow, but they’ll be headed south too far to the east to be of any help to us.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday through Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/33/65/36/66 | Reedley 62/33/65/36/65 | Dinuba 61/31/64/35/64 | |
| Porterville 62/32/65/35/67 | Lindsay 61/31/65/34/66 | Delano 63/33/66/37/67 | |
| Bakersfield 63/38/66/40/67 | Taft 63/41/66/42/67 | Arvin 63/35/66/37/67 | |
| Lamont 62/34/66/38/67 | Pixley 62/32/65/36/66 | Tulare 61/31/65/35/65 | |
| Woodlake 62/32/65/35/66 | Hanford 61/34/65/37/66 | Orosi 61/30/65/34/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 35/59 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/57 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/62 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 38/63 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 35/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 13 through February 19: Models continue to show below to well below average temperatures during this time frame over all of the western United States. This model continues to indicate that we have a 98% chance of below average temperatures. A strong high will remain anchored along the Pacific coast, blocking any potential rain.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain Discussion: Other than a chance of snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains Sunday through Monday, dry conditions will prevail for the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s were recorded throughout the citrus belt this morning. Kern County locations were generally in the low 30s with upper 20s generally elsewhere. Coldest locations were 27 at Navelencia, Ivanhoe, and Exeter. Most locations tonight will moderate into the low to mid 30s. it’s possible an unprotected river bottom or two out there could dip down to 29 degrees briefly, but otherwise this event is pretty much behind us.
Below freezing conditions will prevail for Saturday and beyond.
The medium range outlook for later next week shows a massive high building off the North American coastline up into Alaska. However, the configuration currently favors a northwest flow into the interior west which would preclude subfreezing conditions, so it does look like we’ll have clear sailing for a while.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/80%
Actual Humidity range February 5, 2020: Delano, 89%/24% Porterville, 93%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .52, Blackwell Corner .59, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .53, Porterville .49, Delano .53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 49, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 74/24. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1461 -368
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 46.2. -1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.49. Month to Date: .00. -.37
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.51. Month to Date: .00 -.22
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 773, Parlier 858, Arvin 665, Shafter 771, Stratford 760, Delano 828, Lindcove 990, Porterville 1295
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 Sunset: 5:30 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:33
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 57 / 29 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 28 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 26 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 56 / 30 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 28 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 27 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 59 / 26 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 66 9.55 120 7.96 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 55 7.89 110 7.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 88 7.40 114 6.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 45 5.85 90 6.47 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 59 5.92 98 6.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 58 4.78 88 5.41 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 85 3.02 90 3.34 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 41 4.27 152 2.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 86 8.11 116 6.97 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 96 9.41 137 6.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 65 9.05 124 7.32 13.95
Next report: February 6/afternoon