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Forecast

February 7, 2020/report

February 7, 2020

Summary: Another frosty morning in some areas.  However, a number of locations, especially in Kern County, were above freezing.  Dew points will begin to nudge up today as upper level high pressure just off the California coast continues to dominate our pattern.  The freezing level this morning above Vandenberg is 13100 feet.  The high is creating a northwest flow over California and will be almost westerly by Saturday.  during the second half of the weekend, a low will develop in southwest Canada then will move southward to a position over central California by midday Sunday.  Models have consistently shown this to be a moisture starved system.  Even so, light snow showers are likely over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.  Since this system developed over southwest Canada, the air associated with this system is very cold with snow levels possibly dropping below 3,000 feet.

 

By Monday, the system will form a closed low over southern California for scattered light showers south of Kern County.  By Tuesday, it will be over northwest Mexico.  From Monday through Tuesday night, the flow will be out of the north/northeast for another significant cooling trend.  Temperatures will likely drop below freezing in some areas Monday and Tuesday mornings.  At this point, though, it does not appear the air mass will rival the one we just recently dealt with.

 

A warming trend will begin Tuesday afternoon as high pressure off shore begins to move inland.  Also, from Sunday afternoon through early Monday, we may see some gusty winds, mainly along the west side of the valley as pressure differences increase between northern and southern California.

 

Still nothing to indicate a chance of precipitation for the next week to ten days.

 

Forecast: Clear skies today and tonight.  mostly clear Saturday.  becoming partly cloudy Saturday night.  variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night with a small chance of light showers, mainly near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.  Partly cloudy Monday morning.  mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 65/34/66/36/56 Reedley 65/34/66/36/57 Dinuba 64/33/65/35/56
Porterville 66/33/66/36/57 Lindsay 65/33/66/35/56 Delano 66/35/67/37/56
Bakersfield 67/40/67/41/56 Taft 67/42/67/43/55 Arvin 67/37/67/38/55
Lamont 66/37/67/39/56 Pixley 65/34/66/36/56 Tulare 64/34/66/36/55
Woodlake 65/33/66/37/56 Hanford 65/36/66/37/57 Orosi 64/33/66/36/56

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Partly cloudy

32/57

Tuesday

Mostly clear

31/60

Wednesday

Mostly clear

35/64

Thursday

Mostly clear

38/66

Friday

Partly cloudy

40/68

 

Two Week Outlook: February 13 through February 19:  Models continue to show below to well below average temperatures during this time frame over all of the western United States.  This model continues to indicate that we have a 98% chance of below average temperatures.  A strong high will remain anchored along the Pacific coast, blocking any potential rain.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday night will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Along the west side later Sunday and Sunday night, winds will be out of the west or northwest at 15 to 25 MPH.  Towards the southern and eastern flanks and the central portion of the valley, winds will be out of the north to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH.  later Sunday night and Monday, winds will once again be light.

 

Rain Discussion:  There is a small chance of light showers, mainly near the foothills of the Sierra and Kern County mountains Sunday and Sunday night as a very cold upper low moves through.  Light snow showers are likely up and down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains with snow possibly slightly below the 3,000 foot elevation. The remainder of next week will be dry and even the two week outlook continues to indicate there are very low chances for precipitation through the 20th.

 

Frost Discussion:  Sanger and Fowler chilled down to 28 degrees this morning while Ivanhoe had a low of 29 as of 6:45 this morning.  most locations north of Kern County were in the low 30s and in the mid 30s over most of Kern County.  Dew points will slowly move upwards today and with the general modification of the air mass, only the coldest unprotected low spots will chill into the lower 30s tonight with above freezing conditions elsewhere.

 

Above freezing conditions can be expected Sunday as a very cold upper low moves through with a small chance of light showers.

 

For Monday and Tuesday mornings, widespread low to mid 30s appears to be likely with coldest locations possibly down to 28 to 29 degrees.  That weather system moving through Sunday is very cold and will be followed by a north/northeast flow.  This, fortunately, will be a short term event as upper level high pressure will build in from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday, allowing significant moderation during the latter part of next week and beyond.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

Mcfarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Low to mid 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 35%/80%

Actual Humidity range February 6, 2020: Delano, 84%/27% Porterville, 96%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .61, Parlier .53, Blackwell Corner .63, Arvin .58, Orange Cove .56, Porterville .51, Delano .55. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 48, Delano 47

Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 60/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1479 -367

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 46.3. -1.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.57.  Month to Date: .00. -.45

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.83, or -.56.  Month to Date: .00 -.27

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 789,  Parlier 858,  Arvin 680, Shafter 771, Stratford 760, Delano 843, Lindcove 990, Porterville 1311

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:55 Sunset: 5:32 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:35

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  63 /  32 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  63 /  33 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  63 /  36 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  62 /  31 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  63 /  31 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  63 /  36 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  32 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  63 /  33 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1551 /  62 /  35 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  62 /  34 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    65    9.55   119     8.05    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    54    7.89   109     7.24    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    87    7.40   113     6.56    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    44    5.85    89     6.54    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    58    5.92    97     6.11    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    57    4.78    88     5.46    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.83    83    3.02    89     3.39     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.16    41    4.27   150     2.84     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.99    85    8.11   115     7.07    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.61    95    9.41   135     6.96    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.79    65    9.05   122     7.42    13.95

 

 

 

Next report: February 7/afternoon