February 7, 2020
Summary: Even despite daytime highs yesterday being in the mid 60s, a number of frost stations still managed to chill into the lower 30s last night. but, for the first time in several mornings, no location made it down into the upper 20s.
Currently, upper level high pressure is retrograding out over the Pacific Ocean as a very cold low now centered over Washington state moves rapidly southward. By tonight, this system will already be moving into northern California with most models placing the center of circulation near Kern County Sunday afternoon. Models still portray this system as moisture starved. Even so, light snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains with the snow level dropping to near 3,000 feet by Sunday night. Most valley locations will remain dry, however a few light showers cannot be ruled out, mainly near the foothills of the Tehachapi Mountains and/or the Sierra Nevada.
The pool of air aloft with this storm is very cold. Temperatures will take a good ten degree drop Sunday with at least local frost likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday mornings. I do not expect readings similar to those of earlier this week.
While the low drops into southern California Sunday evening, upper level high pressure will be building just off the Pacific coast into the Gulf of Alaska. This will set up a north/northeast flow over California and, with surface high pressure moving into the Great Basin, a strong off shore flow will begin late Sunday night, lasting through Tuesday. Winds on the valley floor will increase later tonight out of the northwest with gusty winds along the west side Sunday.
By Tuesday, the low will be over northwest Mexico, allowing upper level high pressure to bulge inland at midweek for the beginning of a warming trend. It appears the next system, which will originate in the Gulf of Alaska, will move south/southeast with the main energy sliding into the Great Basin Friday with a chance of snow showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. For now, it appears the valley floor will remain dry.
Medium range models for week after next are mixed. However, there really is no strong indication of a pattern that would bring precipitation back to central California.
Forecast: Clear skies today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night with a small chance of light showers, mainly over the foothills. Clearing Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/35/55/32/59 | Reedley 66/34/55/31/61 | Dinuba 65/34/54/31/59 | |
| Porterville 67/34/56/31/59 | Lindsay 66/34/55/30/60 | Delano 67/36/56/32/60 | |
| Bakersfield 68/42/54/35/58 | Taft 68/43/55/36/57 | Arvin 68/37/55/36/56 | |
| Lamont 67/38/55/33/59 | Pixley 67/35/56/31/59 | Tulare 65/34/55/30/58 | |
| Woodlake 66/35/55/31/58 | Hanford 67/36/55/33/60 | Orosi 66/34/55/30/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 30/61 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 33/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 34/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/62 |
Saturday
Variable clouds 40/64 |
Two Week Outlook: February 15 through February 21: Models continue to show below to well below average temperatures during this time frame over all of the western United States. This model continues to indicate that we have a 98% chance of below average temperatures. A strong high will remain anchored along the Pacific coast, blocking any potential rain.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light today then will be out of the northwest tonight along the west side at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds towards the center and eastern and southern flanks of the valley will generally be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the overnight hours.
Rain Discussion: Models show a moisture starved, very cold upper low almost right overhead by midday Sunday. Light snow showers are likely over the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains with snow levels lowering to near 3,000 feet. Most valley locations will more than likely remain dry. There’s a slight risk of showers along the Sierra Nevada foothills and near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains where upsloping will be occurring. The low will move into southern California Sunday night and by early Tuesday will be in northwest Mexico. So, the low risk chance of showers will be Sunday through mainly Sunday evening. There is still no strong signature that would result in precipitation with the possible exception of snow showers over the Sierra Nevada Friday and Saturday due to a low dropping into the Great Basin.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, possibly just slightly above in those historically cold locations. A very cold upper low will move overhead Sunday followed by a chilly north/northeast flow aloft and a strong off shore flow. Widespread lower 30s are likely Monday and Tuesday mornings with possibly low 30s in some areas, even on Wednesday morning.
Coldest unprotected cold spots Monday through Tuesday have the potential of dropping into the 27 to 29 degree range with most flatland locations ranging from 30 to 32 degrees or so. The air mass will modify by Wednesday.
Above freezing conditions can be expected Thursday and beyond as the main flow in the upper atmosphere will be out of the northwest and high pressure bulges in from the eastern Pacific.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 7, 2020: Delano, 96%/31% Porterville, 95%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .63, Parlier .55, Blackwell Corner .65, Arvin .60, Orange Cove .58, Porterville .53, Delano .56. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 48, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 76/28. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1494 -368
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 46.8. -1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.64. Month to Date: .00. -.52
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.60. Month to Date: .00 -.31
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 815, Parlier 882, Arvin 702, Shafter 791, Stratford 783, Delano 868, Lindcove 1015, Porterville 1340
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 Sunset: 5:33 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 65 9.55 117 8.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 53 7.89 108 7.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 86 7.40 111 6.65 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 44 5.85 89 6.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 57 5.92 96 6.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 57 4.78 87 5.52 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 83 3.02 88 3.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 40 4.27 149 2.87 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 84 8.11 113 7.16 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 94 9.41 133 7.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 64 9.05 120 7.53 13.95
Next report: February 8/afternoon