February 11, 2020
Summary: The low pressure system that brought showers and thunderstorms to southern California yesterday, is moving east/northeast into extreme southeast Arizona. Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific is slowly building inland over California. The warming trend that began yesterday will continue through Thursday. Most, if not all, locations will be above the freezing mark tonight with the possible exception of a few river bottom type locations out there.
A very weak trough will move through Friday, possibly lowering temperatures a few degrees. Part of this feature will cut off and form a cut off low west of San Diego which will have no impact on central California’s weather.
The next challenge will begin during the second half of the weekend. Most models this morning show a weak trough moving through northern and central California Sunday with a reasonable chance of rain and snow showers over the Sierra Nevada. However, if you look at a blend of various models, the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor appears to be about 10% or so. After this system moves through, a cold trough of low pressure will develop over the interior west while upper level high pressure builds northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, creating a northeast flow aloft. There’s no chance of precipitation with this pattern, however a cooler air mass is likely to invade central California, possibly pushing temperatures marginally below average.
All of the medium range models for later next week show dry conditions with a significant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western one-third of the U.S.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday. increasing cloudiness late Saturday night. variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night. mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/34/67/36/67 | Reedley 66/34/67/36/68 | Dinuba 64/34/67/36/67 | |
| Porterville 66/34/68/36/69 | Lindsay 66/33/67/35/68 | Delano 67/35/67/37/68 | |
| Bakersfield 68/41/69/43/70 | Taft 67/44/69/45/69 | Arvin 67/37/69/39/70 | |
| Lamont 67/36/69/39/70 | Pixley 67/35/67/37/68 | Tulare 64/33/67/36/67 | |
| Woodlake 65/35/67/37/68 | Hanford 66/35/67/36/67 | Orosi 65/34/67/36/67 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 39/65 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 41/65 |
Monday
Mostly clear 36/59 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24: This model is now projecting above average temperatures during this time frame as upper level high pressure will be dominant. The chance of precipitation is extremely low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The only chance of precipitation for the next few days appears to be Sunday, however modeling projections indicate the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor is extremely low, in fact no more than 10%. Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will block storms for all of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but at or slightly above in coldest, low lying locations. Above freezing conditions will continue through at least Monday morning. early next week, models are picking up on a possible northeast flow aloft developing along with a strong surface off shore flow. For now, this looks like simply a marginally colder air mass which may result in lower 30s in the colder locations Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. No serious freeze or widespread frost is expected.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, mid to upper 20s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/70%
Actual Humidity range February 10, 2020: Delano, 98%/26% Porterville, 96%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .64, Parlier .57, Blackwell Corner .67, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .60, Porterville .57, Delano .62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 47, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 73/28. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1545 -365
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.1. -1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.85. Month to Date: .00. -.73
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.73. Month to Date: .00 -.44
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 836, Parlier 904, Arvin 716, Shafter 805, Stratford 803, Delano 890, Lindcove 1039, Porterville 1367
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 Sunset: 5:36 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 29 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 29 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 29 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 63 10.25 122 8.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 52 8.30 109 7.58 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 83 8.14 118 6.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 43 6.30 92 6.82 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 55 6.65 104 6.39 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 55 5.27 92 5.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 79 3.19 90 3.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 39 4.31 146 2.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 81 9.34 126 7.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 90 10.11 138 7.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 61 9.63 123 7.84 13.95
Next report: February 11/afternoon