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Forecast

February 12, 2020/report

February 12, 2020

Summary: The western U.S. is located on the eastern side of upper level high pressure off shore. Under the protective dome of high pressure, temperatures will warm to above average through the weekend with the warmest days being today and Thursday when the warmest locations may top the 70 degree mark.  A little weak wave of low pressure will move through Friday then will develop a weak cut off low well off the southern California coast for a slight cooling trend.

 

The trough of low pressure which at one time looked like it would give showers to central California on Sunday now looks like it will dive into the interior western U.S., pretty much bypassing California.  Behind this system, a massive upper high will cover the eastern Pacific with a ridge building into Alaska.  For now, it appears the main northerly flow along the eastern side of the high will move into the interior west.  A marginally cooler air mass will overspread California, so we may see a return to low to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, but no widespread frost or freeze event is anticipated.

 

For the remainder of next week, a large blocking ridge will drive the storm track way up into British Columbia with no hope of precipitation.  Even the two week model which encompasses the 19th through the 25th is indicating a persistent dry pattern will prevail.  Considering the latest snow survey in the high Sierra indicates a snow pack at just 55% of normal, this could be a rough year.

 

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 68/35/69/36/67 Reedley 69/35/70/37/65 Dinuba 67/34/68/36/65
Porterville 69/35/70/36/66 Lindsay 69/34/70/35/66 Delano 69/36/70/37/67
Bakersfield 70/42/71/43/68 Taft 70/45/70/46/67 Arvin 70/37/71/38/67
Lamont 69/38/70/39/68 Pixley 68/36/69/37/66 Tulare 67/34/68/36/66
Woodlake 68/35/69/36/65 Hanford 68/37/69/38/66 Orosi 67/34/69/36/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

39/66

Sunday

Mostly clear

40/67

Monday

Partly cloudy

40/62

Tuesday

Mostly clear

34/61

Wednesday

Mostly clear

33/62

 

Two Week Outlook: February 19 through February 25:  This model is now projecting above average temperatures during this time frame as upper level high pressure will be dominant.  The chance of precipitation is extremely low.

 

January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends.  If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average.  It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.

 

February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period.  This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Saturday.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  For now, there appears to be no chance of rain for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 tonight with isolated river bottom locations possibly near the 32 degree mark.  Above freezing conditions will continue through at least Monday.  Beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday, a large high will build along the Pacific coast all the way into Alaska.  California will be on the eastern rim of this high with a northerly flow aloft moving southward into California.  The coldest air will move into the interior western U.S. but a somewhat cooler air  mass will overspread California, as well.  Lower 30s appear possible in the typically cold spots Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, but as of now no widespread frost or freeze is seen.  Later next week, a mild westerly flow will prevail for above freezing conditions.                

                  

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/80%

Actual Humidity range February 11, 2020: Delano, 98%/26% Porterville, 96%/31%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .66, Parlier .59, Blackwell Corner .69, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .60, Delano .64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 47, Delano 47

Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/38

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1561 -363

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 47.3. -1.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2019  Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.92.  Month to Date: .00. -.80

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.83, or -.77.  Month to Date: .00 -.48

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 850,  Parlier 928,  Arvin 729, Shafter 826, Stratford 827, Delano 903, Lindcove 1053, Porterville 1381

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:50 Sunset: 5:37 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:45

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1500 /  65 /  30 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1500 /  66 /  30 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1500 /  66 /  38 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1500 /  67 /  31 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  66 /  27 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  69 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  67 /  30 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  65 /  33 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  69 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1551 /  66 /  44 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  68 /  35 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    62   10.25   120     8.51    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    51    8.30   108     7.66    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    82    8.14   117     6.97    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    42    6.30    91     6.89    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    55    6.65   103     6.46    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    54    5.27    91     5.76    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.83    79    3.19    89     3.60     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.16    39    4.31   145     2.98     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.99    80    9.34   125     7.50    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.61    89   10.11   137     7.39    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.79    60    9.63   121     7.94    13.95

 

Next report: February 12/afternoon