February 13, 2020
Summary: A warm bubble of subsiding air is over California today, which will be the warmest afternoon we’ll see for a while. As of 1:00pm, readings were already approaching the 70 degree mark. The high will be briefly interrupted Friday by a benign wave of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This will weaken the high enough for readings to fall back into the mid to upper 60s Friday through Sunday. From late Sunday through early Monday, a trough of low pressure will dive southeastward through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin with a slight chance of showers along the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada. Just partly cloudy skies over the valley floor can be expected.
Behind this system, a big high will build northeastward along the Pacific coast with a ridge stretching all the way to southern Alaska and northwest Canada. This will create a northeast flow aloft, spreading a cooler air mass over California. One model shows a cut off low trying to form off the central coast but with no active weather. It will, though, enhance an off shore surface flow.
The only real challenge for next week will be from Tuesday through Thursday mornings for the potential of temperatures falling to below freezing. Current model information suggests coldest locations could dip into the upper 20s. this is discussed in the frost summary. Otherwise, a blocking ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. will maintain dry conditions for the foreseeable future.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/67/36/68 | Reedley 35/68/36/68 | Dinuba 33/67/35/67 | |
| Porterville 34/68/35/68 | Lindsay 33/68/35/67 | Delano 36/67/36/68 | |
| Bakersfield 42/67/42/68 | Taft 44/67/43/68 | Arvin 37/69/37/69 | |
| Lamont 38/68/38/67 | Pixley 34/67/35/68 | Tulare 33/66/34/67 | |
| Woodlake 33/68/35/69 | Hanford 36/67/37/68 | Orosi 33/67/34/67 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Sunday. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but at or slightly above in the coldest low lying pockets. Above freezing conditions can be expected through Monday morning. a large upper high will build northeastward Monday into southern Alaska and the northwest territories of Canada. The winds aloft around the eastern rim of the high will be out of the northeast, spreading a cooler air mass over central California. With surface high pressure over the Great Basin, another off shore flow will develop. This pattern favors reducing dew points and air temperatures, even though I anticipate daytime highs will still reach the 60 degree mark.
From Tuesday through Thursday of next week, the very coldest low lying wind sheltered pockets have the potential of dropping to 28 to 29 degrees with possibly widespread lower 30s. Mid 30s can be expected in the milder locations. Rising dew points and a marginally warmer air mass will take over after Thursday to nudge temperatures above freezing.
Next report: February 14/morning