February 14, 2020
Summary: Air temperatures are running 3 to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time, but are still generally in the pleasant mid 60s. Dew points, on the other hand, have risen considerably and are generally 4 to 10 degrees higher than yesterday afternoon. They’re now all the way up into the low to mid 40s. a little weak wave of low pressure in the atmosphere is directly above central California this afternoon and is marked only by a narrow band of clouds. This little wave will simply dissipate overnight, allowing upper level high pressure to rebound over the weekend. Temperatures, in response, will again move into the upper 60s to near 70 in the warmest locations, especially in Kern County.
The winds aloft over the weekend will become west/northwest, which is generally a mild flow. On Sunday night and Monday, a trough will originate along the British Columbia coast then dive southeastward into the northern Rocky Mountain region.
Models this afternoon show this system moving over the interior west, but more towards the east than had earlier been projected. Also, a large high will build along the coast of North America Monday and Tuesday, ridging into Alaska and the northwest territories of Canada. This will allow cold air to dive into the Rocky Mountain region. More of a northwest pattern will develop over California. Over the past few days, models had indicated it would be a northerly flow, meaning the projected cooling trend for early next week appears to be less likely with perhaps only minor cooling Monday and Tuesday before rebounding again next Thursday and Friday. This will also reduce the chance of frost next week as current thinking would result in lows in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. However, this is the first time this change has shown up and modeling could flip back the other way.
Medium range models all look high and dry. The only significant difference is the two week model has shifted gears and now indicates we’ll experience below average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/67/38/69 | Reedley 36/68/37/69 | Dinuba 35/66/37/67 | |
| Porterville 35/68/37/69 | Lindsay 34/67/36/69 | Delano 37/67/40/70 | |
| Bakersfield 44/69/45/70 | Taft 45/68/45/70 | Arvin 38/68/40/70 | |
| Lamont 39/69/40/69 | Pixley 36/68/39/69 | Tulare 35/67/38/68 | |
| Woodlake 35/67/37/69 | Hanford 37/68/40/69 | Orosi 34/67/37/68 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Monday. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will continue to be above freezing through at least Monday. Models this afternoon are trending a bit milder after Monday morning. models had been depicting a large high along the coast of North America ridging into Alaska and the northwest territories of Canada. That hasn’t changed much, however a trough of low pressure moving from the British Columbia coast southeastward into the northern Rockies appears to move a bit further east than earlier indicated. This would favor a northwesterly flow aloft rather than north or even northeast. This is a considerably milder flow, reducing the chance of even local frost. Since this is the first set of model runs to trend in that direction, I would say stay tuned to see if this trend continues.
Next report: February 15/morning