February 16, 2020
Summary: A flat zone of upper level high pressure remains off shore with California on the eastern side of this high. Freezing levels have zoomed all the way up to 12,100 feet and, with a mild west/northwest flow aloft, above average temperatures will continue through Tuesday. In the meantime, a low pressure system just off the British Columbia coast will sweep through the Pacific Northwest today and tonight and into the northern Rockies Monday. Behind this system, a large high at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will build into Alaska and northwest Canada, allowing cold air to spill down the eastern side of the high and into the Rocky Mountain region. California will be underneath the umbrella of the high, so there’s no chance of any of this modified arctic air affecting California. In fact, by midweek the winds aloft will be out of the west.
Models are very inconsistent on the pattern for Thursday night through the weekend. It is possible a cut off low could develop just off the central coast then slowly move through southern California Friday and the Desert Southwest over the weekend. On paper, this appears to be a very dry feature with only a small chance of showers over the southern Sierra Nevada.
We will have to watch the pattern for next week as we could see a high orient itself over the eastern Pacific with a ridge building northward all the way to the Arctic Circle while a trough of low pressure develops over the Great Basin, creating a north to south flow. Theoretically, this would cause colder air to flow into the western U.S. Both the ten day and the two week outlooks reflect below to possibly well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. mostly clear Saturday through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/37/65/35/67 | Reedley 69/35/66/34/67 | Dinuba 67/36/64/34/66 | |
| Porterville 70/36/66/35/68 | Lindsay 69/35/66/34/68 | Delano 70/36/66/34/67 | |
| Bakersfield 70/44/66/44/69 | Taft 69/46/66/47/70 | Arvin 71/38/66/37/70 | |
| Lamont 69/38/66/38/70 | Pixley 69/37/66/35/68 | Tulare 67/36/66/34/66 | |
| Woodlake 69/36/66/35/68 | Hanford 70/38/66/36/67 | Orosi 68/37/66/34/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 40/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 22 through February 28: The chance for precipitation during this time frame still appears very low. The general flow pattern in the upper atmosphere, however, will be favorable for below average temperatures during this period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Wednesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For now, there appears to be no chance of rain for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/90%
Actual Humidity range February 15, 2020: Delano, 100%/47% Porterville, 94%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .71, Parlier .65, Blackwell Corner .75, Arvin .76, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .67, Delano .68. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 49, Delano 48
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 62/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1607 -378
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.8. -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.20. Month to Date: .00. -1.08
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.95. Month to Date: .00 -.66
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 896, Parlier 963, Arvin 775, Shafter 855, Stratford 863, Delano 949, Lindcove 1104, Porterville 1438
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 Sunset: 5:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 70 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 59 11.36 128 8.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 49 8.95 112 7.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 78 9.09 125 7.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 40 6.70 93 7.20 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 53 7.12 106 6.74 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 52 5.64 94 6.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 75 3.51 93 3.78 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 37 5.63 181 3.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 76 10.10 129 7.84 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 85 11.07 143 7.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 57 10.46 125 8.36 13.95
Next report: February 17/morning