February 18, 2020
Summary: Upper level high pressure continues to dominate the short term pattern over central California. As of 1:00pm, Porterville was the warmest location at 69 degrees with most other locations in the mid 60s. additional warming will take place Wednesday and Thursday as the high moves overhead with widespread low to mid 70s Thursday afternoon. A cut off low will develop off the central coast late Thursday then will move slowly southward to a position near San Diego by early Saturday morning. it’s possible that, as the low drifts southward off shore, scattered light showers may occur over the southern Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains Friday through Saturday morning. one model actually shows a chance of showers over the Coast Range, as well. The low is projected to move into the Desert Southwest Saturday night and Sunday, ending the minor precipitation threat over the higher elevations.
A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure will build northward along the Pacific coast Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold trough of low pressure will dig southward from western Canada into the interior western U.S. Model inconsistencies continue this afternoon, although the model which had indicated a possible spring frost pattern beginning Tuesday has backed off on that solution a bit. Even so, this model is still indicating a considerably cooler weather pattern as a north/northwest flow aloft develops as opposed to the north/northeast flow earlier projected. At any rate, it is a pattern deserving close scrutiny in the coming days. Unfortunately, no matter which model we choose, each shows dry weather continuing through the end of the month.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning with a slight chance of showers near the surrounding foothills. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/68/37/71 | Reedley 36/69/37/72 | Dinuba 35/68/36/71 | |
| Porterville 36/70/37/73 | Lindsay 35/69/37/73 | Delano 37/70/38/73 | |
| Bakersfield 44/70/44/75 | Taft 48/70/48/74 | Arvin 40/71/41/75 | |
| Lamont 40/70/41/74 | Pixley 36/69/37/73 | Tulare 34/68/36/71 | |
| Woodlake 35/68/36/72 | Hanford 37/70/38/72 | Orosi 35/68/36/72 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Friday. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A moisture starved cut off low is projected to move southward just off the central coast Friday into early Saturday. it’s possible scattered light showers may develop over the southern Sierra Nevada, the Kern County mountains, and even a slight chance over the Coast Range. It’s possible a few light showers could occur over the foothills Friday into Saturday morning, so we’ll reflect that in the forecast. By midday Saturday, the low will have drifted to extreme southern California, removing any chance of precipitation over even the mountain areas. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue through at least Monday morning. if you recall, we were talking about one model suggesting the possibility of a spring frost setting up next Tuesday morning. that model has backed off that solution, but only marginally. It still shows a sharp ridge along the west coast with a cold trough of low pressure from western Canada digging southward into the U.S. However, instead of the winds being directly out of the north, current projections are for more of a north/northwest flow which would certainly be a cooler pattern but would not be a pattern that would result in a spring frost. I must emphasize also that other models are leaning towards the warmer solution. It’s still something that deserves scrutiny in the coming days.
Next report: February 19/morning