February 25, 2020
Summary: Significant warming is taking place on the valley floor today. Readings are anywhere from 5 to 9 degrees warmer than they were 24 hours ago. In Kern County, temperatures are already in the mid 70s with near 70 degree weather elsewhere. The weather pattern through Friday night is rather straight forward. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will slowly build inland, driving temperatures anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above average for late February. Readings pushing near the 80 degree mark in the warmest locations will arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon with similar conditions Thursday and Friday.
The high will begin to break down Saturday in response to a trough of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska. Most models this afternoon show this trough forming a new low center just off the central coast Sunday afternoon, increasing the chance of showers over the higher elevations.
Models still hold onto the idea that this will be a moisture starved system so we’ll continue to use the phrase “chance of light showers” in our forecast, especially for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. by Monday morning, most models place the center of circulation just west of LA then just west of the northern Baja coast by Monday evening. As you might expect, much cooler temperatures will arrive along with breezy conditions, especially later Saturday night and Sunday.
As the system moves eastward Monday night, a new high will build over the eastern Pacific, slowly building inland and dominating the pattern Monday night through Friday. There may be changes thereafter.
Forecast: Mostly clear with warm afternoons through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday through Monday, mainly from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. partly cloudy Monday night. becoming mostly clear Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/75/41/76 | Reedley 39/76/42/77 | Dinuba 38/75/40/75 | |
| Porterville 38/77/42/78 | Lindsay 37/76/42/77 | Delano 40/77/43/78 | |
| Bakersfield 47/78/49/79 | Taft 50/77/51/78 | Arvin 41/77/44/78 | |
| Lamont 43/78/45/79 | Pixley 39/76/42/78 | Tulare 37/75/41/76 | |
| Woodlake 39/75/42/77 | Hanford 40/75/43/78 | Orosi 37/75/42/77 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and generally less than 6 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: There is somewhat better agreement on models on the path of a system moving through Sunday and Monday. A trough of low pressure originating in the Gulf of Alaska will move through the Pacific Northwest Saturday then into central California by Sunday afternoon. By that time, a closed low center will also be developing just off the central coast. This will give a chance of mainly light showers to the valley floor with the likelihood of showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The best window of opportunity for measurable rain will be Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. for now, the chance of measurable rain at any given location is less than 50%, perhaps a bit higher near the foothills. Dry weather will return by Monday evening with dry weather continuing through at least next Friday. Beyond Friday, models indicate a pattern that could bring rain back to the valley will develop.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue indefinitely.
Next report: February 26/morning