February 25, 2020
Summary: The beginning stages of a warming trend are well underway. Typically, it’s the higher elevations that show the effects first, and this is certainly evident this morning. for example, Sandberg is 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The reading at that location was 50 degrees at an elevation of 4,100 feet. The freezing level taken over Oakland a few hours ago was up to 11,400 feet.
High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Pacific will slowly build inland over the next 72 hours, driving temperatures anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest locations, especially Thursday and Friday, may eclipse the 80 degree mark. That’s getting into record territory.
Over the weekend, the high will break down. Models are still having a difficult time in determining the track of a low pressure system moving southward from the Gulf of Alaska. One model show it moving off the California coast Sunday into Monday. It’s possible the center of circulation could be too far off shore to result in any significant precipitation. Other models show the system tracking overland from the Pacific Northwest southward into the Desert Southwest Sunday into Monday morning. all of these scenarios would give a decent chance of showers over the mountain areas, but a much smaller chance of measurable rain over the valley floor. At the very least, a major cooling trend will occur along with breezy conditions, especially Saturday night and Sunday.
By late Monday, the low will move into the Desert Southwest, allowing yet another ridge of upper level high pressure to cover the eastern Pacific Ocean and blocking any further storms.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday into Monday. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/40/75/42/76 | Reedley 72/40/75/42/77 | Dinuba 70/39/73/41/75 | |
| Porterville 73/40/75/42/77 | Lindsay 72/39/75/41/76 | Delano 72/40/75/43/77 | |
| Bakersfield 73/47/76/48/77 | Taft 73/51/75/51/77 | Arvin 73/43/75/44/77 | |
| Lamont 73/42/76/44/78 | Pixley 73/41/75/42/77 | Tulare 70/39/74/41/74 | |
| Woodlake 71/39/74/41/76 | Hanford 72/41/75/44/77 | Orosi 70/38/75/41/76 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 44/77 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 44/71 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 47/73 |
Monday
AM Showers possible 41/60 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 39/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 3 through March 9: This model really doesn’t give a whole lot to go on. If anything, near average temperatures will prevail. It does actually, though, lean towards the possibility of above average precipitation.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the late morning and afternoon hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain Discussion: Models still do not really have a concrete grip on the path of a low pressure system which will impact the valley in one way, shape, or form Sunday and Monday. The southward track is what is in dispute on various models. They range from anywhere from well off shore to inland tracks through western Nevada. Any of these possibilities would provide a decent chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains with a lesser chance of showers over the valley floor. We’ll continue to forecast a chance of showers for Sunday through Monday. After Monday, the pattern will turn dry again as a blocking ridge of high pressure builds along the west coast.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range February 24, 2020: Delano, NA% Porterville, 96%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .80, Parlier .71, Blackwell Corner .82, Arvin .80, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .64, Delano .68. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 54, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 80/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1700 -406
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 50.9. +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.87. Month to Date: .T. -1.75
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.35. Month to Date: .01 -1.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 951, Parlier 1020, Arvin 817, Shafter 876, Stratford 919, Delano 1001, Lindcove 1154, Porterville 1507
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34 Sunset: 5:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1547 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 54 11.53 119 9.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 45 9.17 105 8.74 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 70 9.48 117 8.11 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 36 7.32 92 7.97 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 48 7.79 105 7.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 47 5.95 90 6.64 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 68 3.75 89 4.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 39 5.63 166 3.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 69 10.43 121 8.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 77 11.32 131 8.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 51 10.97 117 9.37 13.95
Next report: February 25/afternoon