February 26, 2020
Summary: The freezing level over Oakland just a few hours ago was up to 12,000 feet, meaning that warm bubble of subsiding air is just about right overhead. This will drive temperatures into the upper 70s to near 80 at the warmest locations through Friday. Friday may actually turn out to be the warmest day as a weak southerly downslope wind will begin ahead of a major pattern change set to take place over the weekend.
That change will come forth in the form of a trough of low pressure originating in the Gulf of Alaska. Models have been tracking this system for several days now and models this morning still indicate this system lacks moisture. There will be a good chance of light showers over the mountain areas but a considerably smaller chance over the valley floor. Where precipitation does occur, mainly Sunday through Sunday night, generally .10 or less is anticipated. Along with this chance of showers will come much cooler temperatures. The air mass associated with the low is relatively cold but certainly nothing unusual for early March. As the low slides southward off the southern California coast, the chance of showers will diminish. Most models indicate this system will move through northern Baja Monday night.
A new ridge of upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific. California will be on the eastern periphery of the high Monday night and Tuesday for a brief northerly flow. Temperatures in the 30s will be possible, but no widespread frost or freeze event is anticipated. By midweek, a significant warming trend will begin as the off shore high begins to shift to the east into California. This high will dominate the pattern through at least Friday of next week. Models are still very inconclusive on the pattern for next weekend and beyond, but do hint at a greater possibility of precipitation than we’ve seen for the past month.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday. variable cloudiness Saturday night through Sunday night with a chance of light showers, mainly Sunday afternoon and night. partly cloudy Monday. Mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday with the exception of eastern Tulare County and Kern County which may remain mostly cloudy. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/41/77/43/78 | Reedley 78/42/77/43/78 | Dinuba 77/40/75/43/77 | |
| Porterville 79/43/78/44/79 | Lindsay 78/40/77/44/79 | Delano 79/43/77/44/80 | |
| Bakersfield 80/50/79/52/81 | Taft 78/52/77/52/81 | Arvin 80/44/79/46/80 | |
| Lamont 80/43/77/46/81 | Pixley 78/41/77/44/79 | Tulare 77/40/77/43/78 | |
| Woodlake 78/41/78/44/79 | Hanford 79/43/78/44/79 | Orosi 77/40/77/43/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Increasing clouds 46/72 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 43/58 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 35/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 35/65 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 38/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 3 through March 9: This model really doesn’t give a whole lot to go on. If anything, near average temperatures will prevail. It does actually, though, lean towards the possibility of above average precipitation.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: During the late morning and afternoon hours, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain Discussion: Models have continued the trend this morning of showing a moisture starved trough of low pressure moving through central California Sunday and Sunday night. the only minor change in the specifics is the timing has been moved up a few hours. Most, if not all, the precipitation will be over by Monday morning. the best window of opportunity will be Sunday afternoon and night. at this point, I would put the chance of measurable rain at any location at no more than 30% to 40%, perhaps a little higher near the foothills. Expect dry conditions from Monday through at least Friday of next week. Beyond Friday, models are just not very clear, but do seem to be hinting at a marginally greater chance of rain than we’ve seen for the past month or so.
Frost Discussion: A pool of relatively cold air will move into central California Sunday and Monday. Colder locations could drop to slightly above freezing, mainly Monday and Tuesday mornings, with most locations ranging in the mid 30s to even the lower 40s. at this time, there’s no real threat of a general frost or freeze situation.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/80%
Actual Humidity range February 25, 2020: Delano, NA% Porterville, 97%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .80, Parlier .72, Blackwell Corner .83, Arvin .82, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .66, Delano .69. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 54, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 83/25. Average Temperatures: 64/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1708 -410
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 51.2. +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -3.94. Month to Date: .T. -1.92
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.39. Month to Date: .01 -1.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 956, Parlier 1025, Arvin 822, Shafter 877, Stratford 927, Delano 1006, Lindcove 1160, Porterville 1515
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 Sunset: 5:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 74 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 74 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / mm / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 72 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 54 11.53 118 9.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 44 9.17 104 8.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 69 9.48 116 8.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 36 7.32 91 8.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 47 7.79 104 7.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 46 5.95 89 6.72 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 67 3.75 89 4.23 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 38 5.63 164 3.43 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 69 10.43 119 8.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 76 11.32 130 8.71 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 51 10.97 116 9.48 13.95
Next report: February 26/afternoon