February 28, 2020
Summary: Temperatures are very mild this morning due to a warm air mass coupled with high clouds overhead from a weak upper low off the southern California coast. That low will be suppressed southward courtesy of the break down of upper level high pressure over the weekend. A cold low is currently centered just off the British Columbia coast and will dive southward into northern California Saturday night, spreading rain and snow showers down the Sierra Nevada. The center of this cold core low is projected by some models to be almost right overhead Sunday. We’re late enough into the early spring season for the higher sun angle to result in a greater daytime heating process.
With that pool of cold, unstable air right above us, scattered showers and even some isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday, especially during the afternoon and early evening. If these storms do develop, localized heavy rain and small hail would be the primary result. This system is a fast mover and will be centered just west of Los Angeles by Sunday evening then into northern Baja Monday morning.
The main concern with this change will be overnight low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. This is discussed below in the frost summary.
Snow in the surrounding mountains will occur down to about 3,000 to 4,000 feet.
From Tuesday on, the week ahead looks quite pleasant. By Wednesday, temperatures will return to near seasonal averages with above average temperatures Thursday and into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to return to the unusually warm levels currently experienced. The density of the cloud cover may allow warmest locations to eclipse the 80 degree mark today.
Forecast: Variable high clouds through tonight. partly cloudy Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of scattered showers Sunday through Sunday evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through early evening. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. Partly cloudy Sunday night but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Becoming mostly clear Monday. Mostly clear skies Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
Madera 79/46/73/41/56 | Reedley 80/47/74/41/57 | Dinuba 79/45/74/40/55 | |
Porterville 81/47/75/41/56 | Lindsay 80/46/73/40/56 | Delano 81/48/74/42/57 | |
Bakersfield 81/54/76/43/55 | Taft 79/55/75/46/56 | Arvin 81/49/75/42/57 | |
Lamont 80/50/76/45/56 | Pixley 80/50/73/41/56 | Tulare 79/47/73/41/55 | |
Woodlake 79/46/74/40/56 | Hanford 80/51/75/41/56 | Orosi 79/45/74/40/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Monday
Partly cloudy 33/57 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 32/67 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 36/72 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 41/74 |
Friday
Mostly clear 39/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 6 through March 12: This model projects a continuation of above average temperatures. It is, however, one of the few times in recent months that it is projecting above average precipitation, especially for the southern half of the state.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH from late morning through the afternoon. Winds tonight will be generally light with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday afternoon will begin to increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Saturday night and Sunday with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: There will be a slight chance of showers after midnight Saturday night. most modeling information this morning place the center of circulation of a cold core low almost right overhead by midday Sunday. The combination of cold, unstable air aloft and daytime heating will produce scattered showers, especially from late Sunday morning through the afternoon hours. With the higher sun angle, there could be enough dynamics to the atmosphere for isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through the early evening hours. Localized heavy rain and small hail will be the result if these storms do develop. Most of the precipitation will end by Sunday evening with dry weather for the remainder of the week. Rainfall amounts from Saturday night through Sunday evening will range from nothing to generally less than .10. if thunderstorms occur, isolated pockets could pick up more than .25.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures will be above freezing Saturday and Sunday mornings. It still appears likely that widespread low to mid 30s will occur Monday through Tuesday mornings with a chance of the traditionally cold pockets dropping into the upper 20s. a cold pool of air will be right overhead Sunday. With gusty surface winds blowing down the valley, dew points will fall, dropping generally into the mid 20s to the lower30s. a strong off shore flow will develop both at the surface and aloft Sunday night and Monday, further drying out the atmosphere.
Coldest pockets have the potential of dropping to 27 to 30 Monday and Tuesday mornings. Most flat terrain regions will generally be in the low to mid 30s.
Upslope clouds are certainly possibly Monday morning both in Kern and Tulare Counties which would keep temperatures there above freezing. Also, wind conditions may keep temperatures along the west side up Monday morning. by Tuesday morning, most, if not all, the cloud cover will have dispersed and winds will be generally calm, meaning a better chance of a widespread frost event. Coldest locations Wednesday morning could drop into the lower 30s. expect above freezing conditions to prevail Thursday and beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/55%
Actual Humidity range February 27, 2020: Delano, 74%/34% Porterville, 93%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .84, Parlier .76, Blackwell Corner .86, Arvin .82, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .68, Delano .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 55, Delano 53
Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1719 -419
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 51.8. +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/-4.08. Month to Date: .T. -1.96
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.48. Month to Date: .01 -1.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 Sunset: 5:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 77 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 77 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 77 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 78 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 77 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 53 12.76 128 9.93 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 44 9.32 104 8.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 68 9.54 114 8.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 35 7.57 92 8.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 46 7.82 103 7.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 46 6.01 88 6.84 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 66 3.88 90 4.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 38 5.63 161 3.49 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 67 10.46 117 8.92 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 74 11.68 131 8.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 49 11.14 115 9.69 13.95
Next report: February 28/afternoon