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Forecast

March 1, 2020/report

March 1, 2020

Summary: The cold trough of low pressure we’ve been discussing is moving through central California this morning.  a closed low circulation has developed off the central coast, as anticipated.  The air associated with this storm is quite cold.  The latest sounding above Oakland indicated a freezing level at 5,200 feet as the low passed to their west earlier this morning.  doppler radar is showing showers over the central and southern Sierra Nevada at this hour.  As the daytime heating process revs up later this morning and through the afternoon hours, scattered showers will occur.  The chance for isolated thunderstorms appears marginal as the pool of the coldest, most unstable air is passing southward off shore.  Even so, the parameters appear strong enough to keep a chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for this afternoon through the early evening hours.  Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail.

 

By midnight tonight, the center of circulation of the low will be just west of Vandenberg then southward off shore and into northern Baja Monday morning.  the chance of any active weather over central California will end by midnight tonight with the possible exception of the Kern County mountains where strong upslope conditions will keep the chance of showers going into Monday morning.

 

A strong northeast flow will commence Monday.  Typically, this means locally gusty winds along the far west side of the valley but light winds elsewhere.  A flat zone of high pressure will dominate our weather from Tuesday through Thursday night with a weak westerly flow aloft, resulting in rapid modification of the air mass.  Short term, the main concern will be overnight low temperatures tonight and again Monday night.  a weak trough of low pressure will move through Friday night and Saturday.  models this morning indicate a very weak system so the chance of rain for central California appears low.  Incidentally, this is the first day of meteorological spring.  Just this weather note, it was the easiest citrus frost season I’ve experienced in 25 years of ag forecasting.

 

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight with a chance of scattered showers and a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy later tonight and Monday morning in Kern County and eastern Tulare County with mostly clear skies elsewhere.  Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday night.  partly cloudy Friday and Friday night.  mostly cloudy Saturday with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north.  Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 57/32/62/32/71 Reedley 57/33/63/32/72 Dinuba 56/31/61/31/70
Porterville 58/33/63/32/72 Lindsay 58/31/62/31/73 Delano 58/33/63/33/73
Bakersfield 58/38/62/38/74 Taft 57/40/62/41/73 Arvin 58/35/62/34/75
Lamont 58/36/62/34/74 Pixley 58/32/62/32/72 Tulare 56/31/61/31/71
Woodlake 57/32/62/31/72 Hanford 58/34/63/33/72 Orosi 56/31/61/31/71

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Mostly clear

37/74

Thursday

Mostly clear

41/73

Friday

Partly cloudy

43/72

Saturday

Chance of showers

45/63

Sunday

Partly cloudy

39/68

 

Two Week Outlook: March 7 through March 13:  This model actually indicates there’s an 80% chance of above average precipitation for California during this time frame.  This is just about the highest I’ve seen it this winter.  Temperatures should be fairly close to seasonal averages.

 

March:  This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far.  Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May:  This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S.  Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH through this evening with gusts to near 25 MPH along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties.  Winds later tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours and less than 6 MPH during the night through midmorning hours with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  The bulk of the shower activity is concentrated around the center of the low just off the central coast.  Showers are occurring along the Sierra Nevada at this hour and a few were popping up over the Kern County mountains.  As the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin, especially from late morning through the evening hours.  Even though models are very marginal on the potential for isolated thunderstorms, I do believe the risk factor is high enough to keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for this afternoon and evening.  By midnight tonight, the low will be far enough to the south to take the chance of showers out of the forecast.

 

Many locations may very well remain dry with this system.  Where showers do occur, generally less than .10 is expected.  If thunderstorms do  break out, upwards of .25 cannot be ruled out along with small hail.

 

Dry weather will prevail Monday through at least Friday.  Models have weakened the trough of low pressure moving through central California Saturday, so the chance of measurable rain appears slight.  Models for next week, however, show a large and rather juicy low pressure system moving on shore by the middle of the week.  This could bring our first decent precipitation in two months.         

Frost Discussion:  Models aren’t pointing to conditions quite as cold as they earlier had.  Nevertheless, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected tonight, especially north of Kern County.  The very coldest wind sheltered terrain could drop down to 28 to 29 degrees both Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Most flat territory will generally range from 30 to 36.

 

Upslope clouds will probably be present over much of Kern County and eastern Tulare County tonight.  where these clouds are dominant, above freezing conditions will prevail.  Also, wind conditions, especially along the west side, may keep temperatures above freezing there, as well.  Even so, where the proper conditions set up, the potential of this air mass could be realized.

 

Temperatures Tuesday morning will also be in the low to mid 30s with a chance of upper 20s in those cold spots.  A drying air mass due to a strong off shore flow will have dissipated cloud cover, so more locations may be at or slightly below freezing.

 

Most, if not all, locations will be above freezing Wednesday morning as rapid modification occurs due to high pressure building in from the west.  Above freezing conditions can be expected for the remainder of the week.

                  

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

McFarland

31

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

33

Lindsay

32

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s.  Kern, Mid to upper 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 50%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 40%/90%

Actual Humidity range February 29, 2020: Delano, 64%/25% Porterville, 65%/22%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .92, Parlier .89, Blackwell Corner 1.04, Arvin .94, Orange Cove .93, Porterville .83, Delano .89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 56, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 56, Delano 54

Record Temperatures: 79/28. Average Temperatures: 65/41

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1724 -443

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 52.5. +2.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.15.  Month to Date: .T. -2.03

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.84, or -1.52.  Month to Date: .01 -1.23

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:27 Sunset: 5:55 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:25

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  74 /  50 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  76 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  77 /  53 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  76 /  48 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  78 /  48 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  79 /  51 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  75 /  47 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1549 /  77 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  78 /  45 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  78 /  55 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    53   12.77   128    10.01    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    43    9.32   103     9.07    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    67    9.54   113     8.46    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    35    7.57    91     8.31    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    46    7.82   102     7.69    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    45    6.19    90     6.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.84    65    3.88    89     4.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.32    38    5.63   160     3.52     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.99    67   10.49   117     9.00    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.61    73   11.68   130     9.00    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.79    49   11.16   114     9.79    13.95

 

Next report: March 1/afternoon