March 6, 2020
Summary: Upper level high pressure is beginning to shift eastward now ahead of a trough of low pressure currently off the northern California coast. A stronger onshore flow is developing. The last observation at Pacheco Pass had winds out of the west at 20 MPH, indicating cooler marine air is penetrating into the valley. Even so, temperatures will remain well above average again this afternoon with the warmest locations approaching the 80 degree mark.
A weak cold front will move through the valley late Saturday afternoon and evening with a slight chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County north. The main impact with this system will be much cooler temperatures as highs both Saturday and Sunday will only reach into the mid 60s at most locations.
In the meantime, a low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move rapidly southward and will already be off the California coast Sunday. This storm will make a right turn, heading for central California but more especially southern California Monday and Monday night. most models show the leading edge of the precipitation shield moving on shore along the central coast later Monday afternoon. This system will have a pineapple connect which will move especially into southern California. Some of the model information this morning places the center of circulation near Santa Maria Tuesday night. the low will move into southern California Wednesday.
The best chance for significant precipitation will be Monday night through Tuesday night. northern California may miss out entirely from this storm. By Wednesday night, the low will be moving into northwest Mexico and Arizona. A weak ridge of high pressure will follow Thursday through Friday. Some models are indicating the possibility of a cold trough of low pressure moving through northern and central California about Thursday and Friday of next week. Since this is the first we’ve seen of this pattern, we’ll have to wait and see. Models are also indicating a colder pattern will develop week after next.
Forecast: partly cloudy today, increasing cloudiness tonight. a minimal chance of light showers Saturday afternoon and night, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of rain by late afternoon. Periods of rain Monday night through Tuesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday, mainly during the morning. a slight chance of showers Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
Madera 76/44/62/41/65 | Reedley 77/45/63/40/64 | Dinuba 76/43/62/40/63 | |
Porterville 79/43/63/40/64 | Lindsay 78/43/62/40/64 | Delano 79/44/63/42/64 | |
Bakersfield 81/50/64/45/65 | Taft 79/50/65/46/65 | Arvin 81/46/64/44/66 | |
Lamont 80/46/64/43/66 | Pixley 79/44/62/42/64 | Tulare 77/43/62/41/63 | |
Woodlake 78/43/63/41/64 | Hanford 78/45/62/42/64 | Orosi 78/43/62/40/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Monday
Pm rain 45/65 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 51/63 |
Wednesday
AM showers 48/69 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 44/68 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 47/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 13 through March 19: This time frame indicates there will be a good chance of below average temperatures as a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska moves through. This model is also indicating there will be a reasonable chance of above average precipitation.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light and variable through tonight. winds Saturday and Saturday night will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Sunday and Sunday night will be generally light. Winds Monday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. Local gusts to near 35 MPH are possible in the extreme south valley.
Rain Discussion: Only a minimal chance of light showers exists for mainly Saturday afternoon and night from a weak cold frontal passage. Where precipitation does occur, less than .10 can be expected. Dry weather will return Sunday through Monday morning. most of th emodels show the leading edge of the rain shield moving onshore along the central coast by mid to late afternoon Monday and into the valley shortly thereafter. Periods of rain can be expected Monday night through Tuesday night with showers Wednesday, especially during the morning. models continue to point to a pineapple connection with this storm as a juicy feed of moisture moves from southwest to northeast underneath the low, primarily through southern California. The exact track of this storm has not yet been nailed down, but some models place the center of circulation near Santa Maria Monday night then jogging southeastward into southern California Wednesday. the chance for showers will diminish by late Wednesday with only a slight chance of showers Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday of next week will be dry.
Some models are showing a trough of low pressure moving into northern and central California late next week.
Frost Discussion: Expect temperatures to be above 32 degrees indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/85%
Actual Humidity range March 5, 2020: Delano, 80%/25% Porterville, 89%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .95, Parlier .90, Blackwell Corner 1.14, Arvin 1.07, Orange Cove .95, Porterville .95, Delano .99. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 58, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 57, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 86/31. Average Temperatures: 66/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1770 -441
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 55.6. +1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.51. Month to Date: .00 -.36
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.73. Month to Date: .00 -.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:20 Sunset: 5:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 79 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 81 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 82 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 82 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 85 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1544 / 81 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 82 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1546 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 51 13.85 133 10.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 41 10.40 110 9.47 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 64 10.41 117 8.91 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 33 8.25 94 8.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 44 8.69 108 8.05 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 43 6.97 95 7.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 62 5.33 117 4.57 6.47
BISHOP T 1.32 36 6.58 181 3.63 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.03 64 10.79 115 9.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.63 70 12.83 135 9.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.86 47 13.17 128 10.30 13.95
Next report: March 6/afternoon