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Forecast

March 7, 2020/report

March 7, 2020

Summary: A weak cold front and its associated trough of low pressure are just off the central coast this hour.  Doppler radar is depicting just light scattered showers moving on shore, mainly from Monterey County north.  As the front moves across the valley this afternoon, there will be a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  The main impact of this system, however, will be much cooler temperatures.  Readings today should drop a good 15 degrees from yesterday’s highs.  Dry weather will return  later tonight through Sunday.

 

Satellite imagery is showing a rapidly developing low pressure system roughly 1,000 miles west of the Oregon coast.  This system will continue to move southward to a position roughly 400 miles west of the central coast Monday.  The precipitation field around this storm is very large, so precipitation will begin to spread into central California Monday.  The low will be just west of Santa Maria Tuesday.  Ahead of this system, however, a pineapple connection will develop, feeding lots of moisture into primarily southern California.  If the center of circulation is far enough to the north, central California could do pretty well.  However, the last couple of model runs have shown this system moving in a few hundred miles south, robbing central California of the significant amounts of precip.

 

For now, it appears .25 to .50 will be possible from Monday through Wednesday morning.  the low will then track southeastward off the southern California coast late Wednesday through Thursday, moving inland at the California/Mexico border.  Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through at least Friday.  Models are still showing a cold low dropping southward from western Canada and into northern and central California next Friday night through Sunday.  Models show this system as being rather moisture starved, but at least a minimal chance of showers is likely next weekend, especially over the Sierra Nevada.

 

 

Forecast: A minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north, later today and for a time tonight.  partly cloudy Sunday.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight.  Periods of rain Monday through Tuesday night.  a chance of showers for a time Wednesday morning, becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.  partly cloudy Friday.  Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a slight chance of showers Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/43/64/44/66 Reedley 64/44/65/45/66 Dinuba 63/42/64/44/65
Porterville 64/43/65/45/67 Lindsay 64/43/65/43/67 Delano 65/45/66/46/68
Bakersfield 66/48/67/49/68 Taft 65/49/67/50/67 Arvin 66/46/67/48/68
Lamont 66/46/67/48/67 Pixley 65/45/65/46/66 Tulare 63/43/65/45/65
Woodlake 64/43/65/45/65 Hanford 64/44/65/46/66 Orosi 64/43/65/44/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Rain likely

52/64

Wednesday

Am showers

51/66

Thursday

Partly cloudy

45/72

Friday

Partly cloudy

46/73

Saturday

Chance of showers

47/67

 

Two Week Outlook: March 13 through March 19:  This time frame indicates there will be a good chance of below average temperatures as a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska moves through.  This model is also indicating there will be a reasonable chance of above average precipitation.

 

March:  This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far.  Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

 

March, April, May:  This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S.  Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds this morning will be generally out of the southeast at around 5 to 12 MPH.  later this afternoon and evening, winds will be generally out of the west to northwest, also at 5 to 12 MPH.  winds late tonight through Sunday will be variable to around 10 MPH.  Winds Sunday night through Monday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH.  Gusts to around 35 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.  Winds Tuesday will be generally variable to around 15 MPH with stronger gusts near showers.

 

Rain Discussion:  Only a minimal chance o flight showers exists later today and tonight up until about midnight, mainly from Fresno County north.  If p recipitation does occur, less than .10 is all that will be measured.  A temporary dry slot will arrive Sunday.  It wouldn’t be a total shock to see showers Sunday night.  as the low moves closer to the coast Monday, periods of rain can be expected, continuing through Tuesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday morning.  we are still looking at the anticipated pineapple connection with this storm.  Unfortunately, some models  place the center of circulation further south which means that swath of subtropical moisture will mainly affect southern California and northern Baja.

 

If the storm tracks a bit further north, we could potentially see .25 to .50 on the valley floor from Monday through Wednesday morning.  dry weather will return Wednesday afternoon as the low moves off to the southeast.  Wednesday night through Friday appear dry.

 

Models continue to show a closed low moving into northern and central California next weekend.  This could be our next chance at rain, however this system so far looks to be moisture starved with most of the precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.

Frost Discussion: Expect temperatures to be above 32 degrees indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern, low to mid 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 50%/94%

Actual Humidity range March 6, 2020: Delano, 88%/33% Porterville, 89%/22%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .99, Parlier .90, Blackwell Corner 1.16, Arvin 1.06, Orange Cove .94, Porterville .97, Delano .98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 59, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 58, Delano 54

Record Temperatures: 84/30. Average Temperatures: 66/42

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1771 -449

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 56.9. +3.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.58.  Month to Date: .00 -.43

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  2.84, or -1.78.  Month to Date: .00 -.26

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:20 Sunset: 5:59 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:39

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  72 /  48 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  77 /  46 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  81 /  49 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  79 /  50 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  81 /  46 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  82 /  54 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  79 /  43 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1512 /  80 /  49 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  80 /  42 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1550 /  80 /  54 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  69 /  45 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr         season          %           last year       %             Ave.           365 day ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.27    50   13.99   133    10.50    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.92    41   10.65   112     9.55    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.69    63   10.41   116     8.99    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.90    33    8.27    93     8.85    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.54    44    8.76   108     8.12    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.12    42    7.09    96     7.37    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.84    61    5.75   124     4.62     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.32    36    7.41   202     3.66     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    6.03    63   10.82   114     9.50    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.63    69   13.10   137     9.59    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.86    47   13.40   129    10.40    13.95

 

Next report: March 6/afternoon