March 8, 2020
Summary: The backside of that weak trough of low pressure is currently moving into western Nevada. The only precipitation is over the high Sierra where it will diminish over the next several hours.
Now we turn our attention to a very large low pressure system located roughly 800 miles west of the central coast. The storm will begin to shift eastward towards the central and southern California coast later today. Satellite imagery is already showing a developing subtropical tap. In other words, the infamous pineapple connection is developing along the southeast quadrant of the storm. This feed of moisture will move into southern Califroania and northern Baja late Monday night through Tuesday with heavy amounts of precipitation from the Kern County mountains southward. Some of the favored, mainly southwest facing, mountain ranges could pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain between Monday afternoon and Wednesday night.
The storm’s center of circulation should be just west of Vandenberg Tuesday night then slide southeastward, eventually moving through northern Baja, Thursday night. it now appears the leading edge of the precipitation will reach the central coast about midday Monday then will move into the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley Monday night with rain continuing at times through Tuesday night. showers will be likely Wednesday morning then will diminish from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and last through Friday night as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
Models are still showing a moisture starved but very cold low dropping southward into northern California or just off shore Saturday. it will be somewhere near central California Sunday. The chance of rain on the valley floor appears meager, at best, with most of the precipitation confined to the Sierra Nevada. Another cold low could drop southward and follow a similar path Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. mostly cloudy Monday morning. a chance of rain Monday afternoon. Rain will be likely at times Monday night through Tuesday night. showers Wednesday morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday night. variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday with a slight chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/43/67/49/68 | Reedley 65/42/67/46/68 | Dinuba 64/42/67/45/67 | |
| Porterville 66/43/67/48/69 | Lindsay 66/41/67/45/68 | Delano 66/44/67/49/69 | |
| Bakersfield 67/48/69/52/71 | Taft 66/49/69/52/70 | Arvin 66/44/69/49/70 | |
| Lamont 66/45/69/49/71 | Pixley 66/44/67/48/68 | Tulare 65/43/66/46/68 | |
| Woodlake 65/42/67/46/68 | Hanford 66/44/67/48/68 | Orosi 65/42/66/45/67 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
AM showers 51/68 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 47/71 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 47/74 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 52/70 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 44/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 15 through March 21: This time frame indicates there will be a good chance of below average temperatures as a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska moves through. This model is also indicating there will be a reasonable chance of above average precipitation.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds through tonight will be variable to around 10 MPH. Winds Monday and Monday night will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH. Local gusts to near 35 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be variable to around 12 MPH.
Rain Discussion: We may see rain along the west side of the valley as early as Monday afternoon. Rain will be likely at times Monday night through Tuesday night with showers Wednesday, mainly during the morning. the main flow of energy and moisture will be moving into southern California from the Kern County mountains southward via the pineapple connection. Some models indicate as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain will accumulate over the southern California mountains.
For now, it appears the southern San Joaquin Valley will pick up .25 to .50, especially south of Fresno County. North of Fresno County, amounts will be quite light with northern California remaining dry.
The chance of showers will taper off Wednesday afternoon with dry weather Thursday through Friday night. a cold low will drop southward from western Canada into northern California Saturday and somewhere near central California Sunday. Models show this as a moisture starved system, so the chance of rain on the valley floor appears minimal, at best. A similar system shows up for Monday and Tuesday of next week, however it also looks to be lacking in moisture.
Frost Discussion: Expect temperatures to be above 32 degrees indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity range March 7, 2020: Delano, 86%/48% Porterville, 90%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .81, Blackwell Corner 1.02, Arvin .97, Orange Cove .83, Porterville .91, Delano .93. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 59, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 58, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 84/29. Average Temperatures: 66/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1781 -451
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 56.6. +2.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.65. Month to Date: .00 -.50
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.78. Month to Date: .00 -.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:18, Sunset: 7:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 62 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 61 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.16 5.43 51 13.99 132 10.57 14.06
MODESTO T 3.92 41 10.66 111 9.62 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 63 10.90 120 9.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 32 8.40 94 8.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 43 8.76 107 8.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 42 7.13 96 7.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.84 61 5.79 124 4.66 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 36 7.41 201 3.68 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 6.04 63 10.99 115 9.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 6.63 68 13.12 136 9.68 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 4.88 46 13.53 129 10.50 13.95
Next report: March 9/morning