March 13, 2020
Summary: The storm that brought copious amounts of precipitation to southern California has finally accelerated eastward into Arizona. Only lingering showers are showing up over the mountains of southern California with central California being completely rain free.
We have an intensifying low pressure system just west of the Oregon coast. This storm will slide southward off the northwest California coast by Sunday morning. most models place the center of circulation near the Bay Area Monday morning then off the central coast Tuesday. The chance of rain is low through Saturday night and even Sunday, showers will be mainly north of Fresno County. As the storm slides southward just to our west Tuesday, precipitation will spread southward. With a cold pool of air above central California, and the daytime heating process, springtime thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. This could be a decent precipitation producer, however with a strong southwesterly flow at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, the usual rain shadow challenges will be apparent along the west side and over Kern County.
For now, territory north of Kern County could pick up more than .50, mainly along the eastern flank of the valley, with lesser amounts along the west side and in Kern County. Most of the models show this storm moving through southern California Thursday, so the chance of precipitation will probably not end until Thursday evening, especially in the south valley. Most models now show a dry pattern developing next Friday and through next weekend as upper level high pressure fills in from the west.
Temperatures this coming weekend will drop to seasonal levels but as a pool of cold air moves overhead Monday through Wednesday, readings will drop to below average. Considering there will be abundant cloud cover and off and on precipitation, we will not mention a chance of frost.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight and Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday with a chance of showers, mainly north of Fresno County. A chance of rain Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Periods of rain Monday through Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. A chance of showers Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/65/46/65 | Reedley 44/66/47/64 | Dinuba 43/64/45/65 | |
| Porterville 44/66/46/67 | Lindsay 42/66/45/65 | Delano 46/67/47/67 | |
| Bakersfield 51/67/47/68 | Taft 52/67/50/68 | Arvin 47/68/46/68 | |
| Lamont 46/67/47/68 | Pixley 44/66/47/66 | Tulare 42/64/45/64 | |
| Woodlake 45/65/46/65 | Hanford 47/66/47/65 | Orosi 42/65/45/65 | |
Winds: Winds will be variable tonight at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will prevail through Saturday night. The chance of showers will begin to increase Sunday, but mainly north of Fresno County. The chance of rain will slowly spread southward Monday with the greatest likelihood of substantial precipitation being from Monday night through Wednesday night. isolated thunderstorms will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with the usual localized heavy rain and small hail. There will be a rather robust southwest flow aloft Monday through Wednesday which will generate rain shadows in Kern County and along the west side. Heaviest rain will be along the east side of the valley north of Kern County where more than .50 is certainly possible. More than .75 is possible, especially if thunderstorms occur. For now, it would appear Kern County could tally .25 or so and .25 to .33 along the west side. The chance of showers will continue Thursday then diminish by Thursday evening as the low pulls off to the southeast. It now looks like dry weather will prevail Thursday night through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 14/morning