March 13, 2020
Summary: The northern limit of the cloud shield from that same low pressure system which is finally moving through southern California is as far north as Fresno County. Light showers penetrated the Kern County portion of the valley overnight. However, doppler radar indicates the precipitation shield is diminishing over the Kern County mountains and will end altogether later this morning. rainfall amounts over most of southern California have been impressive, generally ranging from 1.50 to 3.00.
The low will continue to track eastward through southern California and into Arizona later this afternoon for a temporary dry slot of weather today through Saturday night. to our north, the next low pressure system has dropped southward to a position west of Washington state. By midday Sunday, the low will be centered off the northern California coast then will be just off shore from the Bay Area Monday night and Tuesday. It will be off the central coast Tuesday night, moving inland later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Showers will begin spreading down the Sierra Nevada Saturday with a chance of showers Sunday over the valley floor, mainly from Fresno County northward. As the cold low drops further south, bands of precipitation will move into the entire valley Monday and Tuesday. Some models now indicate there’s a possibility of subtropical moisture feeding into the southern sector of this storm and show it moving into central California Sunday night and Monday. The fact that the counterclockwise circulation around this storm will create a strong southwesterly flow aloft means a rain shadow will develop along the Coast Range and over Kern County.
The pool of coldest air aloft will move overhead Monday through Tuesday night as snow levels drop below 4,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains. Active weather will continue through Wednesday with dry weather returning Thursday and Friday. Some models show a new low developing in the Gulf of Alaska, moving southeastward to a position off the central coast Friday or Saturday of next week. Theoretically, this would increase the chance of showers over central California and continue below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. clearing this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight. increasing cloudiness Saturday. mostly cloudy Saturday night. showers Sunday, especially from Fresno County north. Showers continuing Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Rain likely at times Monday through Tuesday night. a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. A chance of showers Wednesday with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/44/65/45/65 | Reedley 73/43/66/45/65 | Dinuba 72/43/64/44/64 | |
| Porterville 74/45/65/45/65 | Lindsay 73/43/66/45/66 | Delano 74/46/66/47/66 | |
| Bakersfield 74/51/67/49/67 | Taft 73/51/68/50/68 | Arvin 73/47/68/47/68 | |
| Lamont 74/47/68/48/68 | Pixley 73/44/65/45/65 | Tulare 72/43/64/45/64 | |
| Woodlake 72/43/65/45/64 | Hanford 73/46/65/46/65 | Orosi 72/43/64/44/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Periods of rain 45/61 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 44/59 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 36/63 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 40/63 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26: This model continues to show above average precipitation over the southern half of California. the general pattern aloft will be out of the north to northwest. Temperatures will generally be below average during this time frame.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be variable to 15 MPH through tonight. Winds Saturday through Monday will periodically be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Showers are still occurring over the Kern County mountains, however precipitation has ended over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will prevail today through Saturday night. the next system is much colder and will drop to a position off the northern California coast Sunday. The low will be just to our northwest Monday night and Tuesday, causing bands of rain to pinwheel into central California from time to time. Some models show a subtropical tap trying to develop which would certainly increase the chance for substantial precipitation. The fact that there will be a strong southwesterly flow over central California means rain shadows will develop along the west side and over Kern County. For now, it appears showers will be likely from Fresno County north Sunday and over the entire valley Monday through Tuesday night with a chance of showers Wednesday. with a cold pool of unstable air aloft, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon and possibly Wednesday afternoon. This system is quite cold, so small hail will occur with any thunderstorms that develop. The chance of showers will begin to diminish Wednesday night with dry weather Thursday through Friday. Some models show another cold low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska, parking off the central coast Friday night or Saturday. this could bring precipitation back to central California.
Frost Discussion: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/90%
Actual Humidity range March 12, 2020: Delano, 99%/61% Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .79, Parlier .73, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .80, Orange Cove .79, Porterville .75, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 61, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 60, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 85/31. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1821 -463
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 56.8. +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.70 or -4.85. Month to Date: .16 -.70
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 3.52, or -1.35. Month to Date: .68 +.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10, Sunset: 7:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 77 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 66 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.43 50 14.00 128 10.96 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 39 10.76 108 10.00 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.87 62 11.05 117 9.46 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.14 34 8.66 93 9.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.70 43 8.90 104 8.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.40 44 7.23 93 7.74 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.51 72 5.80 119 4.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.53 40 7.41 196 3.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.12 61 11.51 115 9.99 12.83
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.87 53 13.56 123 10.99 13.95
Next report: March 13/afternoon