March 14, 2020
Summary: A cold low with its origins in the eastern Gulf of Alaska has moved southward to a position off the southern Oregon coast. The latest balloon sounding over Oakland indicated the freezing level had already dropped down to 5,000 feet as much colder air aloft is already moving over northern and central California. At the surface, a cold front is moving southward through northern California but will slow to a crawl with light precipitation possibly reaching Fresno County later tonight or Sunday. As the low continues to slowly move southward parallel to the coast, a strong southwesterly flow aloft will be lifted by the Sierra Nevada so rain and snow showers are likely over the higher elevations beginning today. Also at the surface, fairly significant differences in pressure will begin to increase between the low off the northern California coast and southern California. This will begin to generate gusty southeast winds from Fresno County north and along the west side. Tonight and Sunday, we may see some gusty winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
The chance of significant rain will begin to increase later Sunday night and Monday as the low drops southward to a position west of San Francisco by midday Monday. That same strong southwesterly flow will create a rain shadow along the west side and especially in Kern County which, of course, will reduce rainfall amounts in those areas. By midday Tuesday, the center of circulation will be off the central coast with widespread precipitation. With a cold pool of unstable air aloft, thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with localized heavy rain and hail.
Models now show the low moving into southern California Tuesday night and Wednesday, so it now appears dry weather will return Wednesday through Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty for Friday night through the weekend. It’s possible a disorganized cold low pressure system will drop southward just off shore, however models have been flip flopping back and forth on the potential path and strength of this system so for now I’ll just add a chance of showers to the forecast for Friday night through Sunday of next week.
Forecast: Cloudy through Sunday. A chance of light showers from Fresno County north this afternoon through tonight. periods of rain, mainly from Fresno County north, Sunday and Sunday night. periods of rain will become likely Monday through Tuesday night. a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday. A slight chance of showers Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/46/61/46/58 | Reedley 64/47/62/47/57 | Dinuba 63/45/62/45/57 | |
| Porterville 66/46/63/47/59 | Lindsay 65/45/62/45/58 | Delano 65/46/66/47/60 | |
| Bakersfield 67/47/66/50/62 | Taft 67/51/66/51/61 | Arvin 67/48/66/48/61 | |
| Lamont 66/47/66/47/61 | Pixley 65/46/62/47/58 | Tulare 63/45/62/46/57 | |
| Woodlake 64/45/62/46/58 | Hanford 65/47/62/47/57 | Orosi 64/44/62/46/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Rain likely 41/59 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 38/59 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 40/66 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 43/68 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 45/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 21 through March 27: this model continues to show a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska over the western U.S. This pattern favors below average temperatures and a greater than average possibility of precipitation from time to time.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds this morning will be variable to 15 MPH. Later this afternoon through Sunday night, winds from Fresno County north and along the west side will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts. It’s possible gusty winds will increase mainly tonight through Sunday night in the extreme south valley at 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH possible. On the eastern side of Tulare County, expect winds out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Monday and Tuesday will continue to be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Light showers spread over much of northern California overnight and are spreading down the Sierra Nevada. There is a chance of light showers, mainly north of Fresno County, today and tonight with an increasing chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night, again mainly from Fresno County north. From Monday through Tuesday night, as the low moves down the coast, the chance of rain will increase over the entire area. With a strong southwesterly flow above the valley floor, expect a rain shadow to develop along the west side and over Kern County, reducing precipitation amounts there. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with localized heavy rain and hail.
Rainfall amounts from now through Tuesday night could eclipse .50 in Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and northern Tulare County. Along the west side, perhaps as much as .25 to .33 is possible with less than .25 over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Wednesday and continue through Friday. The pattern for Friday night through Sunday is inconclusive on model information. It does appear a new low will drop southward off shore, but how far off shore is speculative at this time. I’ll add a slight chance of showers to the forecast at this time for Friday night through Sunday.
Frost Discussion: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/80%
Actual Humidity range March 13, 2020: Delano, 83%/46% Porterville, 86%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .79, Parlier .77, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .73, Delano .77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 61, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 60, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1823 -471
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 57.2. +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.70 or -4.93. Month to Date: .16 -.78
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 3.52, or -1.40. Month to Date: .68 +.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09, Sunset: 7:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:55
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 57 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 73 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 56 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 66 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 73 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.43 49 14.00 127 11.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 39 10.76 107 10.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.87 62 11.05 116 9.53 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.14 34 8.66 93 9.33 12.02
FRESNO T 3.70 43 8.90 103 8.63 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.40 44 7.23 93 7.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 3.52 72 5.80 118 4.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.53 40 7.41 195 3.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.12 61 11.51 114 10.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.29 71 13.34 130 10.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.87 53 13.56 122 11.08 13.95
Next report: March 14/afternoon