March 15, 2020
Summary: Hugely beneficial rain and heavy snow have been falling in the Sierra Nevada north of Yosemite. As much as 2 to 4 inches of rain has been recorded from Tuolumne County northward to the mountainous terrain of Lake Tahoe. Some ski resorts are reporting as much as 3 feet of new snow with much more to follow. Rainfall amounts so far in the central and south valley have been next to nothing. A cold front has stalled and is draped from near San Simeon to just north of Merced and then northeastward to around Tahoe. Precipitation continues to move along ahead of the front with widespread precipitation from Merced County northward. Showers have also spread over San Luis Obispo County, but the rain shadow we’ve been discussing along the west side is zapping precipitation from Fresno County southward.
The center of circulation of a cold low is now off the northern California coast and will drop to just west of San Francisco by midday Monday. It will then begin to stretch as if moves off the central California coast Tuesday. A considerable amount of energy will move over California today through Tuesday with heavy precipitation anticipated along the southern Sierra Nevada. Some models indicate as much as 2 to 4 feet of snow could fall over the higher elevations from Fresno County northward and as much as 2 feet of new snow over the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada. Even though the rain shadow will play havoc with rainfall amounts along the west side and in the south valley, .50 to 1.00 of rain is possible from Porterville north on the valley floor.
Most models now show the low opening up and moving through southern California Wednesday and Wednesday night, so for now it appears Wednesday through at least Friday night will be dry. Another low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska to somewhere off the California coast this coming weekend. Only a minimal chance of showers exists, mainly during the second half of the weekend. Models continue to show systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and dropping southward off the California coast well into next week, keeping temperatures below average with periods of unsettled weather.
Forecast: Rain likely today from Fresno County north. A chance of rain this afternoon in Kings and Tulare Counties with rain likely in Fresno and Madera Counties. Partly to mostly cloudy in Kern County. Rain likely at times tonight through Tuesday night. A chance of isolated thunderstorms is possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Rain may be locally heavy at times, especially on the east side north of Kern County. A chance of showers Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday night. a minimal chance of showers Saturday through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/46/57/38/59 | Reedley 64/47/57/38/58 | Dinuba 62/46/55/37/58 | |
| Porterville 66/47/60/37/59 | Lindsay 66/45/58/37/59 | Delano 66/48/58/39/59 | |
| Bakersfield 67/50/61/40/59 | Taft 66/51/63/41/59 | Arvin 67/47/63/41/58 | |
| Lamont 67/49/61/41/58 | Pixley 64/48/58/39/58 | Tulare 62/46/57/37/57 | |
| Woodlake 63/45/57/37/57 | Hanford 63/46/57/37/58 | Orosi 63/44/57/36/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 35/60 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/63 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 42/67 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 45/67 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 45/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 21 through March 27: this model continues to show a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska over the western U.S. This pattern favors below average temperatures and a greater than average possibility of precipitation from time to time.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be out of the southeast today at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, decreasing to 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Monday through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be variable to 15 MPH.
Rain Discussion: This storm is already a huge blessing for water supplies in the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite north. As much as 2 to 4 inches of rain has fallen. Ski resorts around Tahoe are reporting 2 to 3 feet of new snow. So far, rainfall amounts in the valley have been scant. You have to get north of Merced County to find significant precipitation. Stockton, for example, has recorded .84 and .83 up at Sacramento. Doppler radar is showing showers over San Luis Obispo County, however that rain shadow is certainly showing itself from Fresno County southward along the west side. As the low drops slowly southward, precipitation will increase over Fresno County and possibly as far south as Kern County later tonight. the chance of rain will continue through Tuesday night. isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Rainfall amounts north of Kern County along the east side could easily add up to between .50 and 1.00, possibly even locally more from Fresno County north. That big rain shadow will continue in Kern County and along the west side. Even so, .33 to .50 is possible over the valley portion of Kern County and possibly upwards to .50 along the western side of Kings, Kern, and Fresno Counties. These rainfall estimates are from today through Tuesday night.
Dry weather will return Wednesday and continue through Friday. A rather fragmented low pressure system shows up off the California coast over the weekend. For now, we’ll put a minimal chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday through Sunday. Also, models continue to show a broad area of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska to off the California coast for much of next week. This would be favorable for storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska, possibly affecting California after Sunday of next week.
Frost Discussion: A cold pool of air will be over central California Tuesday through Wednesday. where skies clear, mid to upper 30s will be likely. It’s possible riverbottom and similar locations could see lower 30s. however, by that time the ground will be soaking wet so no widespread frost or freeze event is anticipated. After Wednesday night, moderation will occur, dragging temperatures above freezing. Temperatures will remain below average, though, for the rest of the week. Medium range models are also indicating below average temperatures will continue for much of next week, as well.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/80%
Actual Humidity range March 14, 2020: Delano, 84%/50% Porterville, 80%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .84, Parlier .81, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .86, Orange Cove .79, Porterville .76, Delano .78. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 60, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 91/31. Average Temperatures: 67/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1831 -473
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 57.2. +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.70 or -5.00. Month to Date: .16 -.85
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 3.52, or -1.44. Month to Date: .68 +.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07, Sunset: 7:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 66 / 49 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 66 / 53 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 65 / 53 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 64 / 51 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 63 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 66 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 5.43 49 14.00 126 11.12 14.06
MODESTO T 3.92 39 10.76 106 10.14 13.11
MERCED T 5.87 61 11.05 115 9.60 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.14 33 8.66 92 9.39 12.02
FRESNO T 3.70 43 8.90 102 8.70 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 3.41 44 7.23 92 7.83 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.52 71 5.80 117 4.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.53 40 7.41 194 3.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 6.13 60 11.51 113 10.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 7.30 70 13.34 129 10.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 5.87 53 13.56 121 11.18 13.95
Next report: March 16/morning