March 16, 2020
Summary: This has been quite a weather day in central California as a surface low developed right along the Coast Range with a stalled cold front right along the west side of the valley. Along this front has been continuous precipitation. It’s finally working its way into the southern and eastern flanks of the valley. Along the Coast Range, between 1.50 and 2.00 inches of rain has fallen just to the west of I-5. Rain has been training over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley. As of the time of this writing, Merced had recorded 1.35, Madera .45, and Fresno .33. Some amazing rain totals are coming out of the Sierra Nevada from Tuolumne County to west of Tahoe where anywhere from 3.50 to 6.00 inches of rain has occurred.
The cold upper low is still situated just to the northwest of the Bay Area. Models show this low stretching from northern Nevada southwestward to off the southern California coast Tuesday into Wednesday. this will keep the probability of showers in the forecast. This is a very cold storm. The freezing level this morning over Oakland was only 3,200 feet. With that cold pool of air over central California Tuesday and some daytime heating, there will be a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Even on Wednesday will be a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as the low hangs back over central California. This system will finally move far enough to the east Thursday for dry weather to return.
There is more action on the horizon, however. A low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and skirt the California coast Saturday through Monday. If models have the storm’s positioning correct, periods of rain will return Saturday through Sunday. Yet another low will drop out of the G of A, possibly renewing the chance of rain Tuesday through Wednesday of next week.
This weather note as well: Temperatures this afternoon from Fresno north are only in the mid to upper 40s. Also, strong gusty winds have indeed come to fruition over the valley portion of Kern County. At last report, winds were gusting to 37 MPH at Meadows Field and 45 MPH at the bottom of the Grapevine. These winds will die off this evening as surface pressures begin to equalize somewhat.
Forecast: Rain this evening, locally heavy at times. Showers later tonight. scattered showers Tuesday through Tuesday evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and small hail. A decreasing chance of showers Tuesday night. a slight chance of showers Wednesday through Wednesday evening with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday with a chance of showers during the afternoon. Periods of showers will be likely Saturday through Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 36/59/34/60 | Reedley 37/58/34/61 | Dinuba 33/58/32/59 | |
Porterville 36/59/34/60 | Lindsay 35/58/34/61 | Delano 37/59/36/61 | |
Bakersfield 40/59/38/60 | Taft 37/59/39/59 | Arvin 38/58/37/61 | |
Lamont 38/60/37/61 | Pixley 37/58/34/61 | Tulare 35/58/33/59 | |
Woodlake 35/58/33/60 | Hanford 37/59/35/61 | Orosi 34/59/32/60 |
Winds: Strong, gusty winds will continue this evening over the valley portion of Kern County with gusts possibly exceeding 40 MPH, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will decrease late this evening to around 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be variable to 15 MPH with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, precipitation had finally spread into the eastern side of Tulare and Kern Counties which had been rain free for most of the day. Rain will be widespread through the evening hours then turn to scattered showers later this evening through Tuesday night. thunderstorms will be possible from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. We’ll keep a small chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Significant amounts of rain will occur over the next several hours. More than .50 is possible towards the center and along the east side of the valley. Even over the valley portion of Kern County, .25 to .50 cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most locations Tuesday through Wednesday will record anywhere from nothing to less than .10. However, where thunderstorms occur, more than .50 could be tallied up in a short period of time.
There will be a small chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but most locations will be dry. Dry weather will prevail Wednesday night through Friday night. the chance of rain will increase again by Saturday afternoon as a low drops southward along the coast. Periods of rain appear likely Saturday night through Sunday night. yet another low is showing up on models, dropping southward along the coast Monday through Wednesday so it appears the next nine to ten days will be quite active.
Frost Discussion: The air mass above central California over the next 48 hours will be very cold. In fact, the freezing level this morning over Oakland was only 3,200 feet and 5,300 feet above Vandenberg AFB. Fortunately, significant amounts of rain are occurring throughout the valley which will go along way towards mitigating the chance of frost. However, if skies clear for a few hours early in the morning, the potential of river bottom and other low lying pockets dipping down to 30 to 32 is there. The risk factor will be a little higher Wednesday morning as cloud cover will be less effective. Even so, with a soaking wet valley floor, most locations will range to between 34 and 40 both tonight and tomorrow night. as the pool of cold air shifts eastward Wednesday, the air mass will moderate for above freezing conditions Thursday morning through the remainder of the week and well into next week.
Next report: March 17/morning