March 17, 2020
Summary: It is more like January than March out there this afternoon. As of 1:00pm, temperatures were only in the mid 50s. scattered showers have developed over the Coast Range and are spilling into the extreme west side of the San Joaquin Valley. One cell, according to Doppler radar, has quarter inch hail associated with it, which is not a surprise. Earlier this morning, the freezing level above Vandenberg was only 3,400 feet and 3,800 feet above Oakland.
A complex weather pattern remains over California. The main cold low stretches from northern Nevada to off the southern California coast. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight, especially during the evening hours. Most of the models show an active day over southern California Wednesday as the low finally presses eastward with a quiet day of central California. Muddying the situation is the expected development of a secondary low over Lake Tahoe Wednesday night. it’s projected to move over central California Thursday, renewing the chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. That feature will dissipate Thursday night with weak high pressure moving in from the west Friday through Saturday night for at least 48 hours of dry weather.
Models seem to be concluding that the next cold low to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska will be too far off shore to threaten precipitation in central California, at least not until late Sunday or Sunday night. this storm is projected to move through southern California Monday as a large trough of low pressure quickly follows, extending a trough southward into California Tuesday through Thursday. Theoretically, it would spread precipitation over northern and central California. It’s not until Friday of next week that we can expect a dry weather pattern as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.
Forecast: A chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, mainly this evening. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. variable cloudiness Thursday with a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday evening. Partly cloudy later Thursday night through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of showers Sunday afternoon. A chance of showers will continue Sunday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/59/36/60 | Reedley 34/58/37/61 | Dinuba 32/58/35/60 | |
| Porterville 33/59/36/61 | Lindsay 32/59/35/60 | Delano 34/60/37/62 | |
| Bakersfield 38/60/41/62 | Taft 37/58/41/61 | Arvin 35/59/38/62 | |
| Lamont 35/60/38/61 | Pixley 33/59/37/61 | Tulare 32/58/35/60 | |
| Woodlake 33/58/36/61 | Hanford 35/59/38/60 | Orosi 32/59/36/60 | |
Winds: Winds will be variable to 12 MPH through Friday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.
Rain: There is a chance of widely scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two tonight, mainly this evening. For now, Wednesday appears to be a dry day as the main action shifts into southern California. A secondary low will develop Thursday near Tahoe then will drift southward over central California. This feature may be enough to trigger widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Later Thursday night through Saturday night appears to be a dry period of time. There is a chance of rain Sunday afternoon with a continuing risk of rain Sunday night through Tuesday. If models are accurate, the active weather pattern will continue all the way through Thursday before a dry pattern finally returns for Friday and beyond.
Frost Discussion: The air mass over central California is very cold for this time of year. The freezing level is only at about 3,400 feet or so. Fortunately, the valley floor is soaking wet which will mitigate a widespread frost or freeze event. Even so, low lying river bottom and similar cold pockets could potentially drop into the 30 to 32 degree range tonight. most locations will be similar to last night, ranging from 33 to 37. That’s assuming skies are relatively clear for several hours.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings will be above freezing. However, colder locations will still dip into the mid to upper 30s. above freezing conditions will prevail Saturday and beyond as the general environment will be milder. Temperatures will still be below average, but above freezing. Below average temperatures will continue through most of next week, but no extremely cold pools of air are forecast to be over central California.
Next report: March 18/morning