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Forecast

March 18, 2020/pm update

March 18, 2020

 

We will be out of the office the morning of March 19.  Reports will resume that afternoon

 

Summary: Central California is between two low pressure systems.  The first is moving through northern Baja and southern California with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as far north as Orange County and southern San Bernardino County.  The second low is just to the north of Tahoe.  The southern storm will shift into northern Arizona overnight while the northern system will drift southward along the central Sierra Nevada.  This system will spread showers down the Sierra Nevada Thursday with even the possibility of a few showers over the valley floor Thursday afternoon and evening.  An isolated thunderstorm  or two cannot be ruled out.  The vast majority of locations will remain dry, however, with the greatest possibility for picking up rain being the Sierra Nevada foothills.

 

As this feature moves eastward Thursday night and Friday, a weak upper high will shift inland over California for a temporary dry spell.  With luck, it will last through the weekend. A new low will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska Friday and Saturday, approaching the northern and central California coast Sunday.  It will  move inland Monday, spreading showers over the valley.  As this system moves to the east, a more significant trough of low pressure will develop over the Pacific Northwest.  It will move over central California Tuesday through Thursday.  Model consistency has been pretty good recently with this system, so the chance of rain appears quite high.

 

By Friday, the trough will head off to the interior west, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure to build inland for what appears to be the beginning of a prolonged period of dry weather.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight.  variable cloudiness Thursday through Thursday evening with a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy later Thursday night through Saturday night.  mostly cloudy Sunday.  A chance of showers Sunday night.  showers likely Monday.  Periods of rain Monday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 37/61/40/65 Reedley 38/60/40/65 Dinuba 37/60/39/63
Porterville 37/61/40/65 Lindsay 36/61/39/64 Delano 40/61/42/66
Bakersfield 42/62/43/65 Taft 42/61/43/65 Arvin 41/62/43/66
Lamont 39/62/41/66 Pixley 38/61/41/65 Tulare 37/60/40/64
Woodlake 37/61/40/65 Hanford 41/61/42/65 Orosi 36/61/39/64

 

Winds: Winds will be variable to 12 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.

 

We will be out of the office the morning of March 19.  Reports will resume that afternoon

 

Rain: A weak upper low north of Tahoe will drift southward over the central Sierra Nevada Thursday through the evening.  Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada.  There is a minimal chance of precipitation Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.  The greatest possibility will be over the Sierra Nevada foothills.  The vast majority of locations will remain dry.  Dry weather will prevail later Thursday night through the weekend.  The next low will shift eastward through central California Monday for the likelihood of showers.  Periods of rain can be expected Tuesday through Thursday of next week as a cold, broad area of low pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest through southern California.  Finally, it appears a prolonged period of dry weather will begin next Friday.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight.  Coldest locations will drop down to 34 to 36 or so as some moderation is finally occurring in the lower level of the atmosphere.  Even though temperatures will remain below average, above freezing conditions will prevail for the foreseeable future.

Next report: March 19/afternoon