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Forecast

March 27, 2020/pm update

March 27, 2020

Summary: Temperatures this afternoon remain well below average despite the fact that most locations are 2 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time.  The air aloft, especially over southern California, remains cold as the freezing level over Vandenberg has struggled up to just 4,100 feet.  Over Oakland, the freezing level has nudged up to 5,500 feet.  There are plenty of cumulous clouds over the valley this afternoon but they will dissipate after sunset.  To our north, clouds are increasing over northern California.  The leading edge of this cloud shield will arrive late tonight or early Saturday.  showers have spread over western Washington and Oregon and will spread over northern California Saturday, making it as far south as Fresno County by Saturday evening.

 

As the trough moves through, light showers will be likely from Fresno County north, but this afternoon’s models continue to show weak dynamics south of Fresno County so there’s only a small chance of light precipitation in that region Saturday night and Sunday.

 

The trough will move into southern California and Nevada Sunday night for a return to dry weather.  Monday through Thursday of next week will be dominated by  high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.  The storm track will run from west to east into Washington and Oregon, but will be too far to the north to have an impact on central California’s weather. Even though model solutions vary somewhat for a particular pattern for next weekend and beyond, none of the solutions would result in a return of precipitation although the two week  model is reverting back to showing a higher risk of precipitation.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight.  increasing cloudiness Saturday.  light showers will be likely at times Saturday  night through Sunday from Fresno County north with a small chance of widely scattered light showers south of Fresno County.  Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and  Monday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 37/62/45/63 Reedley 36/63/45/63 Dinuba 35/61/43/61
Porterville 37/63/45/64 Lindsay 35/62/44/63 Delano 38/63/46/64
Bakersfield 42/64/47/65 Taft 42/63/48/64 Arvin 38/63/46/64
Lamont 38/63/47/64 Pixley 36/62/44/63 Tulare 35/61/44/62
Woodlake 36/62/44/63 Hanford 38/63/46/64 Orosi 35/63/44/63

 

Winds:  Winds tonight through Sunday night will be variable to no more than 12 MPH.  Winds Monday will be variable to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Light showers will become likely from Fresno County north Saturday night through Sunday.  Models this afternoon continue to give a low chance of precipitation south of Fresno County.  Even in Fresno and Madera Counties, rainfall amounts at  most locations are estimated to be less than .10.  dry weather will return in all areas Sunday night with dry weather for all of the upcoming week.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.  Coldest locations tonight will drop down to 34 to 36 degrees.  Most flat terrain will range from 35 to 39 degrees.  After tonight, continued modification will occur with no chance of frost for the upcoming week.

Next report: March 28/morning