March 27, 2020
Summary: The very cold area of low pressure has now shifted eastward and extends from Wyoming to Arizona. In the wake of the exiting low is a northwest flow aloft which has resulted in considerable amounts of upslope clouds in the south valley. Visalia, Porterville, and Bakersfield are all reporting an overcast based at between 6,000 and 7,000 feet. Drier air will slowly mix out these clouds as the day wears on.
Clouds are already increasing over northwest California ahead of a weak trough of low pressure which will spread showers over northern California later tonight and Saturday and into central California Saturday night and Sunday. The chance of light showers is fairly high from Fresno County north, but quickly drops off the further south you progress. This trough will be east of the Sierra Nevada Sunday night, ending precipitation. This will be our last chance at rain for at least the next week to possibly ten days. During the first part of next week, a northwesterly flow will prevail, slowing the warming trend. However, from Wednesday on, the high will firm up with a weak westerly flow aloft, resulting in near 80 degree weather Wednesday through Friday of next week. Some models for next week are indicating an even stronger ridge will build over and along the west coast for well above average temperatures.
The month of March has been fairly decent, with generally above average precipitation for the month. April is considered the beginning of the dry season and for at least the first half of the month, this will certainly hold true.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. becoming mostly clear this afternoon and tonight. increasing cloudiness Saturday. light showers will be likely from Fresno County north Saturday night and Sunday with a minimal chance of showers south of Fresno County. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. mostly clear Monday afternoon through Friday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/37/62/44/64 | Reedley 61/37/62/45/63 | Dinuba 61/37/62/43/63 | |
| Porterville 63/36/62/43/65 | Lindsay 61/35/62/43/64 | Delano 63/38/62/46/65 | |
| Bakersfield 61/41/63/47/64 | Taft 61/40/63/46/63 | Arvin 61/38/63/45/63 | |
| Lamont 62/39/63/46/62 | Pixley 62/36/62/45/65 | Tulare 61/35/62/43/63 | |
| Woodlake 61/35/62/43/63 | Hanford 62/37/62/45/64 | Orosi 61/35/62/43/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 41/63 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 43/71
|
Wednesday
Mostly clear 46/78 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 51/81 |
Two Week Outlook: April 3 through April 9: This model shows above average temperatures over California. However, it does indicate there will be at least a 50/50 chance of precipitation during this time frame.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be variable to no more than 12 MPH with light winds tonight. Winds late Saturday through Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The next chance of rain will arrive in the form of light showers from Fresno County north Saturday night through Sunday. The dynamics of this already weak system will weaken further in the south valley, so there’s only a minimal chance of light showers south of Fresno County. Even in Madera and Fresno Counties, generally no more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation is expected. Dry weather will return by Sunday evening. Next week will be dry as the storm track migrates northward into the Pacific Northwest.
Frost Discussion: As of 7:00am, the coldest ag station I could find was 33 degrees at east Clovis and Sanger. All other ag reporting stations were between 34 and 39 degrees.
Coldest locations tonight will drop down to 34 to 35 or so with most locations between 36 and 42. By then, the cloud cover over the south valley this morning will have dissipated. Light showers will spread into Fresno County Saturday night. obviously, above freezing conditions will prevail Sunday with cloud cover in place. Slow moderation will continue Monday with well above average temperatures by midweek. There is nothing on model information this morning suggesting a pattern that would result in below freezing temperatures.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/85%
Actual Humidity range March 26, 2020: Delano, 96%/41%, Porterville, 96%/53%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .74, Parlier .72, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .79, Delano .84. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 58, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 59, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 91/31. Average Temperatures: 69/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1986 -427
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 54.7. -0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or -5.81 or -3.65. Month to Date: 2.27 +.50
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.41, or -1.00. Month to Date: 1.57 +.52
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:50, Sunset: 7:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 36 / 0.07 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 59 / 42 / 0.26 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 59 / 37 / 0.11 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 59 / 37 / 0.20 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 59 / 43 / 0.03 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 59 / 39 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 54 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 58 / 41 / 0.17 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 56 / 39 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 38 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.06 59 15.10 127 11.89 14.06
MODESTO 0.04 5.70 52 11.75 108 10.87 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.76 76 11.70 114 10.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.41 45 9.52 96 9.89 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.81 61 8.99 95 9.46 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.20 62 7.32 88 8.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 4.41 82 5.85 108 5.41 6.47
BISHOP T 1.73 43 7.55 189 3.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.05 7.87 72 12.01 109 10.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.07 9.74 87 13.77 123 11.22 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.60 71 14.01 116 12.11 13.95
Next report: March 27/afternoon