April 1, 2020
Summary: A flat zone of high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific across California and into the Desert Southwest. The air aloft has warmed considerably as indicated by the freezing level above Oakland which has zoomed up to 11,400 feet. In the meantime, a low remains in place over the Pacific Northwest. Disturbances move from west to east across the Pacific Northwest and into the interior west from time to time. One such system will drive a dry cold front through the valley Thursday with no weather, but winds will pick up, especially along the west side of the valley along with the development of upslope clouds against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapis and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. The latest observation out of Meadows Field indicated an overcast based at 5,000 feet.
The next major change in the pattern will occur over the weekend as models show the development of a significant area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. It will slide southeastward into northern and central California Sunday and Monday. Showers could reach as far south as Fresno County by late Saturday afternoon, but the highest risk of precipitation will be Sunday afternoon through Monday. One model places the center of circulation almost right overhead by midday Monday. With relatively cold and unstable air aloft, thunderstorms will be possible both Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings.
Models vary considerably on a pattern after Monday night. unlike yesterday, however, it appears upper level high pressure will build along the Pacific coast for a dry pattern beginning Tuesday and lasting possibly through the remainder of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning in Kern and southeastern Tulare County. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear through Friday night. upslope clouds may redevelop tonight and Thursday in Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. a small chance of showers as far south as Fresno County by late Saturday afternoon. A chance of showers Saturday night. showers likely Sunday through Monday night. a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings. A small chance of showers Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/40/68/38/69 | Reedley 73/40/69/37/69 | Dinuba 71/39/68/37/69 | |
| Porterville 72/39/68/37/68 | Lindsay 73/39/68/36/69 | Delano 72/42/68/40/69 | |
| Bakersfield 72/44/68/42/69 | Taft 62/46/68/44/70 | Arvin 72/43/68/40/70 | |
| Lamont 72/43/68/41/70 | Pixley 72/42/68/40/70 | Tulare 71/39/68/36/68 | |
| Woodlake 72/39/68/37/68 | Hanford 72/40/68/38/69 | Orosi 71/39/68/36/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
PM showers possible 44/67 |
Sunday
Showers likely 47/67 |
Monday
Showers likely 42/63 |
Tuesday
AM showers possible 42/68 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 41/71 |
Two Week Outlook: April 8 through April 14: This model is indicating a pattern conducive for below average temperatures. With a fairly significant trough of low pressure over the western states, above average precipitation is a distinct possibility.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through Thursday night at around 8 to 15 MPH. Gusts to near 20 MPH will be possible during the afternoons and evenings. Winds Friday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH. winds will again pick up Saturday out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. there is a minimal risk of showers as far south as Fresno County by late Saturday afternoon. The risk factor will increase Saturday night throughout the valley. The chance of showers will increase into the likely category Sunday through Monday night. there are models projecting the center of circulation will be near the valley by midday Monday. This time of year, with strong daytime heating and cold unstable air aloft, thunderstorms may very well be in the mix Sunday afternoon and even more so Monday afternoon. This means the possibility of localized heavy rain and small hail will be in the cards. The chance of rain will begin to diminish by late Monday night with only a minimal risk of showers Tuesday, mainly during the first part of the day.
Some models are showing a dry pattern for Tuesday night and beyond as the main area of low pressure shifts to the east of California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity range March 31, 2020: Delano, 96%/45%, Porterville, 96%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .95, Parlier .87, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .85, Porterville .85, Delano .96. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 59, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 90/32. Average Temperatures: 70/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 2037 -418
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.7. -0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or -5.86 or -3.86. Month to Date: 2.32 +.29
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.41, or -1.16. Month to Date: 1.57 +.36
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42, Sunset: 7:23 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1642 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.14 59 15.20 125 12.17 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.84 53 11.91 107 11.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.80 74 11.82 112 10.53 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.43 44 9.65 95 10.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.86 60 9.08 93 9.72 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.36 63 7.38 87 8.53 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.41 79 5.89 106 5.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.77 44 7.55 186 4.05 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.89 70 12.04 107 11.26 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.84 86 14.00 122 11.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.60 69 14.47 116 12.43 13.95
Next report: April 2/morning