April 7, 2020
Summary: Looking at satellite imagery this morning, the low was opening up into a considerably wider circulation pattern. Embedded within the main area of low pressure are secondary circulation centers. There will be somewhat of a lull in the shower activity today, although I wouldn’t rule out scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Models are showing the development of an enhanced area of precipitation moving from south to north through southern California and into the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley tonight and for a time Wednesday. this may very well result in another round of very significant precipitation, especially over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. One model projects Bakersfield will record nearly an inch of precip from now through Thursday with heavy precipitation over the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.
The center of circulation of the storm is about 100 miles west of Santa Maria . the low is projected to move slowly south to a position just west of Los Angeles by midday Thursday. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will create a southeast flow into central California for a continuation of showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the valley through Thursday.
Since this is a cut off low, the steering currents of the storm are rather erratic, but some models place the center of the storm near Las Vegas Thursday, drifting into southwest Arizona Friday. That will, in effect, pull the active portion of the storm out of central California for the beginning of a dry weather pattern.
Over the weekend, a large upper high will reside just off the Pacific coast with California ending up on the eastern flank of the high and with a northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to show a blocking ridge pattern well into next week for dry weather and above average temperatures.
Forecast: A slight chance of showers this morning. an increasing chance of showers later this afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely tonight through Wednesday night with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the south valley, Thursday. A slight chance of showers Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/44/62/45/63 | Reedley 65/45/61/45/62 | Dinuba 64/43/61/45/61 | |
| Porterville 65/43/61/44/62 | Lindsay 64/42/61/44/63 | Delano 65/47/61/48/63 | |
| Bakersfield 65/48/59/50/63 | Taft 64/41/58/50/62 | Arvin 65/45/59/48/62 | |
| Lamont 64/46/58/48/62 | Pixley 65/45/61/47/63 | Tulare 64/43/61/45/62 | |
| Woodlake 64/43/61/44/62 | Hanford 65/46/61/47/63 | Orosi 64/42/61/44/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 44/71 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 45/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Monday
Mostly clear 51/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/81 |
Two Week Outlook: April 13 through April 19: This model indicates above average temperatures during this time frame. It has also reverted back to a higher than average possibility of precipitation.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be variable to 12 MPH through Thursday with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Thursday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: This is really quite an interesting scenario models are painting on rainfall potential over the next 48 hours. Radar is pretty quiet at this hour but models show a significant batch of moisture moving from south to north through southern California then into the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley tonight and Wednesday. models are indicating potentially heavy amounts of rain could fall in the south valley, mainly south of Fresno County. Some models are indicating the possibility of more than an inch in in southern Tulare County, southern Kings County, and Kern County. Due to the fact this is a cut off low, the steering currents of the storm are quiet weak, but generally move across southern California early Thursday, placing it near Las Vegas Thursday afternoon. This would keep a chance of showers in the forecast, mainly over the south valley, but the precipitation pattern would generally be pretty spotty.
Some models show the system drifting southward into Arizona Saturday, far enough to the south for a dry forecast for the valley which would continue through the weekend and for most of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/95%
Actual Humidity range April 6, 2020: Delano, 95%/40%, Porterville, 97%/36%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.19, Parlier 1.02, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin 1.29, Orange Cove .96, Porterville 1.05, Delano 1.06. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 59, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 60
Record Temperatures: 94/32. Average Temperatures: 72/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -5
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 56.3 -1.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or 6.95 or -3.02. Month to Date: 1.09 +.64
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 5.10, or -.62. Month to Date: .69 +.54
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34, Sunset: 7:28 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 57 / 40 / 1.20 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 62 / 44 / 0.83 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 60 / 45 / 0.92 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 62 / 47 / 0.43 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 45 / 0.32 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1644 / 64 / 50 / 0.52 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 62 / 47 / 0.96 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 60 / 44 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 62 / 48 / 1.17 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 59 / 48 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / M / 0.07 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.02 7.88 63 15.68 126 12.43 14.06
MODESTO 0.10 6.82 60 12.03 106 11.35 13.11
MERCED 0.59 9.23 86 11.84 110 10.76 12.50
MADERA 0.01 5.32 52 9.75 94 10.32 12.02
FRESNO 0.18 6.88 69 9.22 92 9.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.12 5.85 67 7.49 86 8.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.39 5.03 88 5.90 103 5.72 6.47
BISHOP 0.10 1.87 45 7.55 183 4.12 5.18
SALINAS 0.18 8.97 78 12.25 106 11.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 10.79 92 14.00 120 11.70 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.17 9.72 76 14.47 114 12.72 13.95
Next report: April 8/morning