April 10, 2020
Summary: It has been just over the past two hours that the northern limit of the precipitation shield has moved far enough to the south so that even the valley portion of Kern County is rain free. Only a handful of times in my quarter century of weather forecasting has a storm lasted more than five days. This system will be one for the ages in Kern County where 2.51 inches of rain has been recorded at Meadows Field. That’s 39% of what Bakersfield typically receives during an entire rainfall season. Interestingly enough, southern California is generally about 150% of average while northern California, in many instances, is less than 50% of average to date.
The center of circulation is somewhere in the vicinity of the LA basin. The low is forecast to shift into southern Arizona by midday Saturday. So, it will be one more active day in southern California before this historic system draws to a close down there.
Beginning today, the most dominant feature for central California will be a large high blanketing the eastern Pacific, ridging northward into the Gulf of Alaska. California will be on the eastern rim of this high through midweek. A weak disturbance will move rapidly through the Great Basin Sunday and Monday, possibly setting off some shower activity over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. For the valley, this Easter weekend will be a pleasant one with much warmer temperatures as readings move well into the 70s.
For the second day in a row, models are indicating a low will be off the central California coast Thursday and Friday of next week. For now, I’ll go ahead and continue with a dry forecast as, on paper, this system looks pretty weak. I will continue to monitor model information. Medium range models do not indicate a return to a pattern that would result in precipitation. In fact, the two week model continues to point towards above average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today. Becoming mostly clear tonight. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/45/73/47/75 | Reedley 68/44/72/47/74 | Dinuba 68/43/72/47/73 | |
| Porterville 69/43/73/48/75 | Lindsay 69/42/73/47/75 | Delano 68/47/72/49/76 | |
| Bakersfield 67/50/73/53/77 | Taft 67/51/72/53/76 | Arvin 66/45/72/50/77 | |
| Lamont 67/47/72/51/76 | Pixley 68/44/73/48/75 | Tulare 67/42/72/47/74 | |
| Woodlake 68/45/72/47/73 | Hanford 69/46/73/48/75 | Orosi 68/42/72/47/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 52/75 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 50/82 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 51/79 |
Two Week Outlook: April 16 through April 22: This model indicates a large high over the eastern Pacific and western U.S., resulting in above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be very low.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning through early evening hours will be generally less than 12 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions through Wednesday and more than likely well beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 70%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 70%/95%
Actual Humidity range April 8, 2020: Delano, 98%/82%, Porterville, 98%/80%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.07, Parlier .86, Blackwell Corner .97, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .89, Delano .90. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 59, Blackwell 60, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 95/32. Average Temperatures: 73/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -7
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 56.1 -2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or 7.08 or -2.96. Month to Date: 1.22 +.90
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 6.63, or +.87. Month to Date: 2.22 +2.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31, Sunset: 7:30 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 67 / 50 / 0.05 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 50 / 0.13 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 60 / 49 / 0.28 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 48 / 0.32 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 49 / 0.37 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 52 / 48 / 0.71 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 48 / 0.41 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 47 / 0.53 /
/
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 63 15.68 125 12.51 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.82 60 12.03 105 11.42 13.11
MERCED 0.02 9.25 85 11.84 109 10.82 12.50
MADERA 0.10 5.56 54 9.75 94 10.38 12.02
FRESNO 0.03 7.00 70 9.22 92 10.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 5.98 68 7.49 86 8.74 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.44 6.45 112 5.90 102 5.76 6.47
BISHOP 0.03 1.94 47 7.55 182 4.15 5.18
SALINAS T 8.97 77 12.25 106 11.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 11.04 94 14.00 119 11.76 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 9.97 78 14.47 113 12.80 13.95
Next report: April 11/morning