April 15, 2020
Summary: Currently, upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific with a ridge extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska. The freezing level this morning over Vandenberg AFB is 11,200 feet which indicates that warm bubble of subsiding air over us. Temperatures this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon will finally eclipse the 80 degree mark. Embedded within this high, however, is a rather weak and compact low pressure system off the Oregon coast. That system will be a few hundred miles west of the Golden Gate by midday Thursday.
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will be surging southward into the Rocky Mountain and Great Basin regions. Showers will begin spreading down the Sierra Nevada Thursday afternoon. The off shore low will then shift eastward through southern California Friday and Friday night. this will be our best chance for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially over the mountain areas. A temporary ridge of upper level high pressure will follow Saturday and Saturday night only to be replaced by a broad area of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Sunday night through Monday night.
On paper, the chance of precipitation seems rather high with this system, even though the strongest dynamics will be to our north. Following this system will be another ridge of upper level high pressure Tuesday. Some medium range models show a weak trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California a week from Thursday, but for now any shower activity will likely remain north of the growing area.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness later Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday and Friday night with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. showers likely Monday and Monday night with a chance of showers into early Tuesday morning. partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. becoming mostly clear Wednesday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/48/81/50/72 | Reedley 81/49/81/51/74 | Dinuba 79/47/81/49/73 | |
| Porterville 82/48/82/50/74 | Lindsay 81/47/81/50/74 | Delano 82/52/82/53/75 | |
| Bakersfield 82/56/82/57/75 | Taft 82/57/82/57/74 | Arvin 81/52/82/53/75 | |
| Lamont 82/51/82/54/75 | Pixley 81/48/82/50/73 | Tulare 80/47/81/50/73 | |
| Woodlake 82/48/82/50/73 | Hanford 81/50/81/52/75 | Orosi 81/47/81/50/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 51/71 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 49/73 |
Monday
Showers likely 52/65 |
Tuesday
AM showers likely 48/72 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/75 |
Two Week Outlook: April 22 through April 28: This model indicates near average precipitation during this time frame, meaning at least a decent chance of showers. Temperatures will run marginally above seasonal average.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning through early evening hours will be generally less than 12 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain Discussion: There are two chances of rain coming up. The first will be Friday through Friday night. the precipitation pattern with this storm will be spotty with rainfall amounts ranging from nothing to upwards of a tenth of an inch. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon and evening. If they do break out, isolated pockets could receive more than .25. dry weather will return Saturday and continue through the weekend and well into Sunday night. the second storm appears to have a greater risk of precipitation associated with it beginning late Sunday night and lasting through Monday night. this will be a rather fast mover so expect dry weather to return to midday Tuesday after the risk of showers for a time Tuesday morning. Wednesday and beyond appear dry although a weak area of low pressure will pass to our north a week from Thursday which will need to be monitored.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range April 14, 2020: Delano, 94%/20%, Porterville, 97%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier .92, Blackwell Corner 1.03, Arvin .94, Orange Cove .89, Porterville .91, Delano .98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 61, Blackwell 60, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 61, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 96/35. Average Temperatures: 74/46
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -13
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 57.4 -1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or 7.34 or -2.89. Month to Date: 1.48 +.97
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 6.92, or +1.05. Month to Date: 2.51 +2.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:23, Sunset: 7:35 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 77 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 77 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.98 63 15.68 123 12.71 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 59 12.03 103 11.63 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.31 85 11.84 108 10.99 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.73 54 9.75 92 10.56 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.34 72 9.22 90 10.23 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.46 73 7.49 84 8.88 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.92 118 5.90 101 5.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.20 52 7.55 180 4.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 8.97 76 12.25 104 11.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.30 95 14.00 118 11.89 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.39 80 14.47 111 13.01 13.95
Next report: April 16/morning