April 16, 2020
Summary: A compact low pressure system is moving steadily southward off the northern California coast. To our east, a trough of low pressure is quickly moving southward through the Rocky Mountains and the Great Basin. As the off shore low moves southward off the central coast this afternoon, it will combine with daytime heating to trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. This system is a relatively fast mover and will begin to jog towards the east, moving through southern California Friday. There are models that indicate the northeast quadrant of the low will become active Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening. This could result in scattered showers over the valley floor. The chance of showers will quickly diminish later Friday night as the low moves into Arizona.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Saturday through Sunday but will quickly break down Sunday night as a colder trough of low pressure moves quickly southward. Models this morning are not nearly as impressive with this system. In fact, I’m almost leaning towards most of the precipitation being confined to the mountain areas of Kern County and the Sierra Nevada with only a minimal chance of showers over the valley floor. Since this system is diving in from the north, temperatures early next week will be considerably cooler.
Outside of a weak trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California next Thursday, after Monday night the rest of the week should be dry as a flat zone of upper level high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific and extends inland over California. The main storm track will be pushed into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. a chance of scattered showers Friday and for a time Friday night. a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Saturday. mostly clear Saturday night through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness again late Sunday night with a small chance of scattered showers Monday and Monday night. a slight chance of showers for a time Tuesday morning. partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/51/71/50/70 | Reedley 83/52/72/50/70 | Dinuba 82/50/71/49/69 | |
| Porterville 85/51/73/50/70 | Lindsay 84/50/72/49/70 | Delano 85/53/73/51/71 | |
| Bakersfield 85/57/72/54/71 | Taft 85/58/72/55/72 | Arvin 86/53/73/50/71 | |
| Lamont 85/53/73/51/72 | Pixley 84/53/72/50/70 | Tulare 82/51/71/49/70 | |
| Woodlake 83/49/72/49/71 | Hanford 84/54/72/50/70 | Orosi 83/49/72/49/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 45/72 |
Monday
Chance of showers 50/71 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 44/72 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 45/78 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/82 |
Two Week Outlook: April 22 through April 28: This model indicates near average precipitation during this time frame, meaning at least a decent chance of showers. Temperatures will run marginally above seasonal average.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning through early evening hours will be generally less than 12 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain Discussion: Most of the showers Friday and Friday night will be confined to the mountain areas. As the low moves through southern California Friday, the northeast quadrant will be somewhat active, giving a chance of scattered showers over the valley floor, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Even a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will range between nothing to upwards of .10 or so. If isolated thunderstorms pop up, more than .25 is possible.
Dry weather will return for Saturday through Sunday night. the next weather system will move through Monday and Monday night. current model information shows most of the shower activity being confined to the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains and only a minimal chance of scattered showers over the valley floor. Models continue to show a dry pattern setting up beginning Tuesday and lasting through the middle of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/75%
Actual Humidity range April 15, 2020: Delano, 88%/31%, Porterville, 91%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.22, Parlier 1.10, Blackwell Corner 1.18, Arvin 1.15, Orange Cove 1.07, Porterville 1.09, Delano 1.15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 62, Blackwell 61, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 60
Record Temperatures: 95/35. Average Temperatures: 75/46
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -14
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 57.8 -1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or 7.34 or -2.92. Month to Date: 1.48 +.94
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 6.92, or +1.04. Month to Date: 2.51 +2.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:21, Sunset: 7:36 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:12
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 82 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.98 63 15.70 123 12.74 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 59 12.03 103 11.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.31 84 11.85 108 11.02 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.73 54 9.83 93 10.59 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.34 72 9.30 91 10.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.46 73 7.51 84 8.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.92 118 5.90 100 5.88 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.20 52 7.55 179 4.21 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 8.97 76 12.30 104 11.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.30 95 14.08 118 11.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.39 80 14.47 111 13.04 13.95
Next report: April 17/morning