April 18, 2020
Summary: The only real active portion of this storm as of the time of this writing is over the southern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills where light showers are rapidly moving southeastward. The shower activity in all areas will come to an end by midmorning. The low is now moving into Arizona and is rather ill-defined. A temporary ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west this afternoon for dry weather which will continue into Monday.
Once again, there are differences on models this morning on the behavior of a trough of low pressure moving in from the north. Some models show a low pressure system developing off the northern California coast Monday then moving through central California Monday night. one model has the center of circulation of this low over Kern County during the early morning hours Tuesday. For that reason, we need to up the ante a bit on the chance for showers Monday afternoon and Monday night. even a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms exists for Monday afternoon and evening.
Isolated thunderstorms developed yesterday over the Coast Range. One storm affected Blackwell Corners which recorded .56 yesterday.
After this system moves through Monday night, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will move in from the west for the beginning of what promises to be a prolonged period of dry, warm weather. A weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Wednesday night, however this feature will do little to interfere with the warming trend. Upper level high pressure will remain with us for the weekend. Some models are indicating a stronger high will cover the eastern Pacific and much of the western U.S. for the first half of next week. If this occurs, it would result in much above average temperatures and, of course, no chance of rain.
Forecast: A chance of showers over the next few hours over Tulare and Kern Counties. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy today. Mostly clear tonight through Sunday night with the exception of clouds remaining over portions of Kern County and southwestern Tulare County into Sunday morning. increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Monday night into early Tuesday morning, becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday with a slow warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/48/71/48/69 | Reedley 68/47/73/48/69 | Dinuba 67/47/70/48/68 | |
| Porterville 68/47/73/47/68 | Lindsay 68/46/72/49/69 | Delano 68/49/73/50/70 | |
| Bakersfield 68/51/73/52/71 | Taft 67/54/73/54/70 | Arvin 69/51/73/51/71 | |
| Lamont 68/51/73/52/71 | Pixley 68/48/73/50/69 | Tulare 67/47/73/49/68 | |
| Woodlake 68/47/71/48/69 | Hanford 68/50/73/51/69 | Orosi 68/46/73/48/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 45/69 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 46/75 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 49/77 |
Friday
Mostly clear 50/83 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 51/84 |
Two Week Outlook: April 24 through April 30: This model indicates a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in above average temperatures. The chance of rain during this timeframe appears to be very low.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June: Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning through early evening hours will be generally less than 12 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: The following are rainfall amounts as of 6:30am: Jasmine .25, Bakersfield .04, lamont .03, Buttonwillow .05, Porterville .38, Lemoore .05, Visalia .15, Tulare .31, Reedley .11, Del Rey .17, Fresno .10, Westlands .24, Delano .07, Orange Cove .02, and Blackwell .56.
there is a chance of showers over the next few hours in Tulare and Kern Counties. Otherwise, the remainder of today through Sunday night will be dry. High resolution models are picking up on the possibility of a new low developing off the northern California coast. It’s projected to rapidly move southeastward through central California late Monday afternoon and night. this is contrary to previous model runs which were indicating a much drier scenario. Therefore, I’m going to add a chance of scattered showers to the forecast beginning Monday afternoon and continuing into early Tuesday morning. if the active portion of the storm arrives in time, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon and evening. Of course, thunderstorms would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.
Rainfall amounts will be generally less than .10 with some locations remaining dry. When and if isolated thunderstorms occur, more than .25 would be possible. The chance of rain will end early Tuesday morning with dry weather for the remainder of the week and, in all likelihood, next week as well.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/90%
Actual Humidity range April 17, 2020: Delano, 90%/56%, Porterville, 93%/60%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.30, Parlier 1.18, Blackwell Corner 1.29, Arvin 1.33, Orange Cove 1.14, Porterville 1.15, Delano 1.26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 64, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 95/36. Average Temperatures: 75/47
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2 -14
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 58.7 -0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or 7.36 or -2.96. Month to Date: 1.50 +.90
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 6.96, or +1.04. Month to Date: 2.55 +2.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:19, Sunset: 7:37 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 74 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 56 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 54 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 58 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 68 / 54 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1645 / 70 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 65 / 53 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 69 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.98 62 15.79 123 12.80 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 59 12.06 103 11.72 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.31 84 11.87 107 11.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.73 54 9.84 92 10.66 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.34 71 9.47 92 10.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 6.47 72 7.67 86 8.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.04 6.96 118 5.94 100 5.92 6.47
BISHOP T 2.20 52 7.55 178 4.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 8.99 76 12.31 104 11.89 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.04 11.34 95 14.10 118 11.95 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 10.39 79 14.53 111 13.10 13.95
Next report: April 20/morning