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Forecast

April 23, 2020/report

April 23, 2020

Summary:The record high temperature for Fresno on this date is 100 which is the earliest triple digit date on record.  There are no triple digits in the immediate forecast, but definitely a prolonged period of warm weather.  It’s possible that by the middle of next week warmest locations could reach into the mid 90s.  the freezing level this morning is up to 14,200 feet above Vandenberg which is the highest level since some time last fall.  Many locations on the valley floor, especially north of Kern County, are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.

 

Upper level high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific Ocean with California under the eastern flank of the high and with a dry northwesterly flow aloft.  A very weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Sunday night.  the only ramification for central California will be a leveling off of the warming trend.  Most models now move the center of the high to a position just off the southern California coast by Tuesday.  This, of course, will increase pressure aloft, resulting in temperatures possibly as much as 20 degrees above average, if not more, with warmest locations again in the mid 90s.  some models show the high finally shifting eastward by next weekend.  No precipitation is on the weather horizon.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 83/54/87/55/88 Reedley 84/54/88/55/89 Dinuba 82/53/86/54/87
Porterville 85/53/88/55/89 Lindsay 84/52/88/54/89 Delano 84/56/87/58/89
Bakersfield 85/60/87/62/90 Taft 84/61/87/62/89 Arvin 85/55/87/58/90
Lamont 84/56/87/59/89 Pixley 84/55/88/56/89 Tulare 83/54/88/55/88
Woodlake 83/53/88/55/89 Hanford 84/55/87/56/89 Orosi 83/53/87/55/88

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/85

Monday

Mostly clear

56/87

Tuesday

Mostly clear

56/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

57/93

Thursday

Mostly clear

57/90

 

Two Week Outlook: April 28 through May 4:  This model indicates a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in above average temperatures.  The chance of rain during this timeframe appears to be very low.

 

April:  Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction.  This particular model is even muddier than most.  It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.

 

April, May, June:  Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California.  This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will pick up a bit this afternoon and evening at 10 to 15 MPH with localized gusts over 25 MPH possible.  Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH during the late morning through the evening hours and less than 7 MPH during the late evening through early morning hours.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/75%

Actual Humidity range April 22, 2020: Delano, 95%/42%, Porterville, 97%/39%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell Corner 1.11, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove .95, Porterville .94, Delano 1.12. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 64, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 66, Delano 64

Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 77/48

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 4 -17

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for April so far: 59.6 -0.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -2.95.  Month to Date: 1.65 +.91

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.02, or +1.02.  Month to Date: 2.61 +2.19

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:12, Sunset: 7:42 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

: …Valley…

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  84 /  47 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  83 /  47 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  81 /  55 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  83 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  84 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  59 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  80 /  53 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1601 /  81 /  51 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  82 /  52 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.99    62   15.79   122    12.95    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.86    58   12.06   102    11.87    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.34    83   11.87   105    11.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    5.81    54    9.84    91    10.83    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.51    72    9.47    91    10.46    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.51    71    7.67    84     9.11    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.02   117    5.94    99     5.99     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    53    7.55   177     4.26     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.00    75   12.31   102    12.02    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.34    94   14.10   117    12.04    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.39    79   14.53   110    13.23    13.95

 

Next report: April 24/morning

April 23, 2020

Summary:The record high temperature for Fresno on this date is 100 which is the earliest triple digit date on record.  There are no triple digits in the immediate forecast, but definitely a prolonged period of warm weather.  It’s possible that by the middle of next week warmest locations could reach into the mid 90s.  the freezing level this morning is up to 14,200 feet above Vandenberg which is the highest level since some time last fall.  Many locations on the valley floor, especially north of Kern County, are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.

 

Upper level high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific Ocean with California under the eastern flank of the high and with a dry northwesterly flow aloft.  A very weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Sunday night.  the only ramification for central California will be a leveling off of the warming trend.  Most models now move the center of the high to a position just off the southern California coast by Tuesday.  This, of course, will increase pressure aloft, resulting in temperatures possibly as much as 20 degrees above average, if not more, with warmest locations again in the mid 90s.  some models show the high finally shifting eastward by next weekend.  No precipitation is on the weather horizon.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 83/54/87/55/88 Reedley 84/54/88/55/89 Dinuba 82/53/86/54/87
Porterville 85/53/88/55/89 Lindsay 84/52/88/54/89 Delano 84/56/87/58/89
Bakersfield 85/60/87/62/90 Taft 84/61/87/62/89 Arvin 85/55/87/58/90
Lamont 84/56/87/59/89 Pixley 84/55/88/56/89 Tulare 83/54/88/55/88
Woodlake 83/53/88/55/89 Hanford 84/55/87/56/89 Orosi 83/53/87/55/88

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/85

Monday

Mostly clear

56/87

Tuesday

Mostly clear

56/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

57/93

Thursday

Mostly clear

57/90

 

Two Week Outlook: April 28 through May 4:  This model indicates a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in above average temperatures.  The chance of rain during this timeframe appears to be very low.

 

April:  Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction.  This particular model is even muddier than most.  It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.

 

April, May, June:  Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California.  This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will pick up a bit this afternoon and evening at 10 to 15 MPH with localized gusts over 25 MPH possible.  Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH during the late morning through the evening hours and less than 7 MPH during the late evening through early morning hours.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.  Humidity values ranging from 30%/80% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/75%

Actual Humidity range April 22, 2020: Delano, 95%/42%, Porterville, 97%/39%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell Corner 1.11, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove .95, Porterville .94, Delano 1.12. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 64, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 66, Delano 64

Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 77/48

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 4 -17

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for April so far: 59.6 -0.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -2.95.  Month to Date: 1.65 +.91

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.02, or +1.02.  Month to Date: 2.61 +2.19

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:12, Sunset: 7:42 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

: …Valley…

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  84 /  47 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  83 /  47 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  81 /  55 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  83 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  84 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  59 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  80 /  53 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1601 /  81 /  51 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  82 /  52 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.99    62   15.79   122    12.95    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.86    58   12.06   102    11.87    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.34    83   11.87   105    11.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    5.81    54    9.84    91    10.83    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.51    72    9.47    91    10.46    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.51    71    7.67    84     9.11    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.02   117    5.94    99     5.99     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    53    7.55   177     4.26     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.00    75   12.31   102    12.02    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.34    94   14.10   117    12.04    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.39    79   14.53   110    13.23    13.95

 

Next report: April 24/morning