May 7, 2020
Summary: Upper level high pressure centered just west of the northern Baja coastline is expanding northward and is building a ridge into western Canada. The latest balloon sounding above Oakland this morning indicates the freezing level has jumped to 14,100 feet, roughly 2,000 feet higher than 24 hours ago. The marine layer along the coast has peeled back to the beaches. The marine layer at last report at Monterey was only 600 feet deep. All of this , of course, points to an early summer pattern as temperatures move into the lower 90s this afternoon then soar into the upper 90s Friday and Saturday.
typically, these spikes upward don’t last long during the month of May and that will be the case here as a big low moves out of the Gulf of Alaska, centering off the Oregon and northern California coast as early as Monday. Some models show light showers spreading down to a Bay Area/Stockton line Monday afternoon and we will still have to watch the chance of light showers moving into north central California, possibly as far south as Fresno County, Tuesday.
Temperatures will be drastically cooler with this change, falling from the mid to upper 90s this weekend to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday. The low will move inland through Oregon and northern California on Tuesday then for the remainder of the week, a zonal flow will prevail as a flat west to east flow in the upper atmosphere resides underneath low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain near to marginally below average temperatures later next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear and warmer through Saturday. mostly clear Sunday and Sunday night with a cooling trend. Increasing cloudiness Monday. Variable cloudiness Monday night through Tuesday night with a small chance of light showers down to Kern County. Partly cloudy Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/55/98/58/98 | Reedley 92/56/98/60/98 | Dinuba 90/54/97/57/97 | |
| Porterville 92/55/98/57/97 | Lindsay 91/54/98/57/98 | Delano 93/60/98/62/98 | |
| Bakersfield 93/63/99/66/98 | Taft 91/66/97/68/97 | Arvin 93/60/99/63/98 | |
| Lamont 92/60/98/63/97 | Pixley 92/56/98/59/98 | Tulare 90/54/96/58/97 | |
| Woodlake 91/54/97/58/97 | Hanford 92/57/98/60/98 | Orosi 90/54/96/58/97 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 52/82 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 52/77 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 46/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 45/78 |
Two Week Outlook: May 13 through May 19: This model is indicating there’s at least a chance of precipitation during this time frame as a broad area of low pressure covers the western U.S. Temperatures will fall to below average during this period.
May: The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May. It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.
May, June, July: Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May. Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings through Saturday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. during the night and morning hours, winds will be variable to 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will begin to increase out of the west to northwest Sunday at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH by Sunday evening, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Models show showers spreading over northern California as early as Monday with a minimal risk over parts of central California Tuesday, mainly from Fresno County north but there’s even a slight risk north of the Kern County line. Dry weather will return Wednesday and for the remainder of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/60%
Actual Humidity range May 6, 2020: Delano, 81%/34%, Porterville, 86%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.80, Blackwell Corner 1.74, Arvin 1.85, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.69, Delano 1.73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 71, Blackwell 72, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 76, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 103/36. Average Temperatures: 82/51
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 95 +42
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 68.8 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -3.28. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.02, or +.88. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:57, Sunset: 7:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:55
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / M / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1639 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1641 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.99 60 15.79 119 13.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 56 12.06 99 12.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.34 80 11.87 102 11.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.81 52 9.84 88 11.21 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.51 70 9.47 88 10.79 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.51 69 7.67 81 9.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.02 114 6.00 98 6.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 52 7.55 174 4.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.00 73 12.32 100 12.29 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.34 93 14.12 115 12.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.39 77 14.82 110 13.51 13.95
Next report: May 8/morning