May 8, 2020
Summary: Temperatures throughout the valley are running 4 to 6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. All the signs are in place for a big warm up as a warm bubble of subsiding air underneath a dome of upper level high pressure will send temperatures in many cases into the upper 90s both today and Saturday. The freezing level is just under the 15,000 foot mark now, according to the latest balloon sounding above Oakland. The sounding at Monterey indicates a marine layer of just 800 feet and the latest report out of Traverse Air Force Base shows calm winds in the Delta, so any marine influence will be absent through Saturday.
In the broad picture, upper level high pressure extends from the northern Baja coastline up into western Canada and off shore. The high will begin to shift into the interior west by late Sunday as a developing low approaches the Oregon and northern California coast. Models project the center of the storm’s circulation will be off the northwest California coast by midday Monday. A weakening cold front will move down the valley late Monday night and Tuesday morning. the chance for measurable rain remains low, but it cannot be completely ruled out Tuesday, mainly north of Kern County.
The first phase of all this will actually begin Sunday as the marine layer rapidly deepens and surges through the Delta then through the gaps and passes through the Coast Range Sunday night. the combination of marine air and falling pressures aloft will lead to drastically cooler temperatures this upcoming week.
After the first wave of low pressure moves through Tuesday, a broad area of low pressure will remain along the west coast, maintaining near to marginally below average temperatures for the remainder of next week. There is some indication another low will move through northern and central California late next weekend, but we’ll process that in the coming days. Meanwhile, the very summerlike conditions of the first week in May this year will come to a drastic halt as they will be replaced by spring-like conditions this coming week.
Forecast: Clear skies and hot afternoons through Saturday. mostly clear Sunday and Sunday night. partly cloudy and cooler Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. a small chance of scattered light showers Tuesday north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/59/98/60/91 | Reedley 98/60/97/60/92 | Dinuba 96/58/97/58/91 | |
| Porterville 97/58/99/58/92 | Lindsay 97/57/98/58/93 | Delano 97/62/98/63/93 | |
| Bakersfield 98/68/98/67/93 | Taft 97/69/97/68/92 | Arvin 98/64/99/65/93 | |
| Lamont 97/64/98/65/93 | Pixley 97/59/98/60/93 | Tulare 96/57/98/58/91 | |
| Woodlake 96/57/98/58/91 | Hanford 96/60/98/61/92 | Orosi 96/57/97/58/91 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 54/83 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 53/76 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 50/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/78 |
Friday
Mostly clear 47/81 |
Two Week Outlook: May 15 through May 21: Low pressure will continue to dominate much of the western U>S. during this time frame. The risk of precipitation remains relatively high, especially over northern California and, to a lesser extent, over central California. Temperatures should range close to seasonal values.
May: The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May. It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.
May, June, July: Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May. Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be variable during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday night. during the afternoon and evening, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Sunday will begin to increase out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Gusts over 30 MPH will be possible by Sunday evening, mainly along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be generally out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: There remains a minimal chance of scattered light showers Tuesday as a weakening cold front moves down the valey. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the higher elevations, however there is enough model disparity to keep a chance of showers in the forecast, mainly north of Kern County. If precipitation does occur, generally less than .10 can be expected. After Tuesday, it looks like we’ll have dry conditions though we will have to watch the pattern for next weekend and into the following week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/60% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/50%
Actual Humidity range May 7, 2020: Delano, 80%/23%, Porterville, 82%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.75, Blackwell Corner 1.74, Arvin 1.83, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.69, Delano 1.72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 71, Blackwell 72, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 76, Delano 75
Record Temperatures: 101/39. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 100 +44
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 68.9 +3.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -3.30. Month to Date: .00 -.14
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.02, or +.87. Month to Date: .00 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:56, Sunset: 7:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 90 / 49 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 91 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 89 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1625 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 89 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.99 60 15.79 119 13.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.86 56 12.06 98 12.26 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.34 80 11.87 102 11.69 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.81 52 9.84 88 11.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.51 69 9.47 88 10.81 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.51 69 7.67 81 9.45 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.02 114 6.00 98 6.15 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 52 7.55 174 4.35 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.00 73 12.40 101 12.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.34 92 14.12 115 12.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.39 77 14.82 110 13.53 13.95
Next report: May 9/morning